Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:47:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6688…fdce other 350 markets active 1h ago coverage 251d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$2,359 (-7%) realized −$2,370 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate29%101W / 247L
Whale WR36%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$102per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,507now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$18
7 days−$19
14 days−$93
30 days−$643
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 36% −$1,593
other 29% −$121
world 12% −$110
weather 10% −$285
politics 5% −$100
finance 5% −$90
crypto 1% −$80
culture 1% −$16
tech 1% −$26
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-19.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -36.8% -42.8% 0% 0% -21.4%
≤30d 27 -24.2% -31.5% 22% 19% -22.4%
≤90d 244 -10.9% -19.4% 16% 10% -15.4%
all 348 -11.4% -19.8% 29% 20% -16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.8% 20% -16.0%
10% -27.5% 14% -24.0%
15% -34.5% 8% -31.4%
20% -40.9% 4% -38.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
31% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 36% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -11% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$16 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.36 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

251d coverage
Net worth$1,507
Realized−$2,370
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses101 / 247
Whale WR (big bets)36%
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)348 / 350
History coverage251d
Avg bet$102
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 348 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 93¢ 94¢ $1,496 $1,507 +$11 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? Jun 22 $112 −$8 -7%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $11 −$10 -98%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Jun 19 $22 −$1 -4%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$51 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $18 $0 -1%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 +$18 +158%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 12 $355 −$5 -1%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? Jun 11 $92 −$4 -4%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $21 −$10 -49%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 08 $395 −$5 -1%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $22 −$22 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $447 −$444 -99%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian Jun 02 $65 +$9 +14%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 31? May 31 $195 −$80 -41%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 18°C on May 30? May 30 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 29°C on May 30? May 30 $0 $0 -21%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Gold (GC) settle over $8,000 on the final trading day of June 202 May 30 $31 $0 -1%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $140 on the final trading day of June 202 May 30 $755 −$4 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 30 $1,000 −$2 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 30 $34 +$16 +48%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 28 $32 +$8 +26%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 27 $289 +$21 +7%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? May 26 $460 −$11 -2%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $32 +$8 +26%
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 achieve a success May 22 $26 −$2 -6%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 22 $56 +$11 +19%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 21 $389 $0 -0%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $50 −$50 -99%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 19 $181 +$19 +11%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 13 $182 +$18 +10%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 11 $16 +$9 +56%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09? May 11 $52 +$18 +36%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and May 09 $36 $0 -1%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 09 $277 +$23 +8%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 07 $113 +$17 +15%
US x Iran peace deal before Trump visits China? May 06 $8 −$4 -43%
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 27-May 3? May 06 $0 $0 -25%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the Ohio Governor Republican Primary Election May 06 $1 $0 -54%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Patrick Schmidt be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kansas? May 06 $9 −$7 -72%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-05? May 05 $22 −$22 -98%
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by May 31? May 05 $26 −$9 -33%
Will there be no de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026? May 05 $19 −$2 -10%
Will Olivia Rodrigo attend the Met Gala? May 05 $0 $0 -81%
Will JD Vance say "Abortion" in Des Moines? May 05 $3 −$1 -33%
Will MrBeast's video get between 62 and 64 million views on day 3? May 05 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Cardi B be on Vogue's Best-Dressed list? May 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? SELL No 24¢ $105 1h
Starmer out by June 22, 2026? BUY No 25¢ $112 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 34h
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee SELL Yes 29¢ $21 3d
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee BUY Yes 29¢ $22 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $51 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 65¢ $4 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 65¢ $4 7d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $12 8d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $11 9d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Canada win on 2026-06- BUY 20¢ $5 10d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $12 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 70¢ $192 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 70¢ $140 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? SELL No 70¢ $18 10d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? BUY No 71¢ $355 10d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? SELL Up 47¢ $88 10d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 11? BUY Up 48¢ $92 10d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 18¢ $11 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 34¢ $21 13d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL No 78¢ $390 14d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY No 79¢ $395 14d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 43¢ $22 15d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 79¢ $95 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 79¢ $238 18d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 56¢ $113 18d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 100¢ $50 19d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian BUY Yes 73¢ $37 21d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian SELL Yes 23¢ $24 21d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on May 31? SELL No 22¢ $2 21d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,507.08 · official $1,507.08 (match) · 1637 history records