Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:09:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6686…61ea sports 140 markets active 2h ago coverage 157d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%17W / 123L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 31% −$2
politics 25% −$2
other 17% +$3
crypto 11% −$3
economics 9% $0
culture 4% −$1
world 4% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 3 -0.7% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 4 -0.7% -10.1% 0% 0% -10.1%
all 140 +0.0% -9.5% 12% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 75% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

157d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses17 / 123
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)140 / 140
History coverage157d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 140 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 18 $59 $0 -1%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $65 $0 -0%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 23 $57 −$1 -1%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? May 15 $64 $0 -0%
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 16 $191 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 16 $128 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 16 $196 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 14 $29 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 14 $127 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 14 $114 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 14 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 14 $92 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 17, 2026? Feb 14 $11 $0 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 14 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 14 $120 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in February? Feb 14 $130 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 14 $192 $0 -0%
Will the Florida Panthers win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 14 $63 $0 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? Feb 14 $18 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 14 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 14 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 14 $388 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 14 $48 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 14 $79 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 14 $95 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 12 $135 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 12 $125 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 12 $134 $0 -0%
Will Silver (SI) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of February? Feb 12 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 12 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 12 $81 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 12 $129 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 12 $73 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Feb 12 $39 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 12 $61 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 12 $66 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 12 $67 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 09 $193 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 09 $62 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 09 $131 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 09 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Miami Heat win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 09 $67 $0 -0%
Will Italy win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? Feb 09 $34 $0 -0%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Feb Feb 09 $65 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 95¢ $59 1h
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $59 5h
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $65 13d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $65 13d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? SELL No 97¢ $56 25d
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? BUY No 98¢ $57 25d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $63 33d
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $64 33d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 95¢ $65 121d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $65 121d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $64 121d
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $65 121d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? SELL Yes 94¢ $62 121d
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? BUY Yes 95¢ $62 121d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? SELL No 95¢ $64 124d
Will Luka Doncic win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? BUY No 95¢ $64 124d
Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? SELL No 98¢ $29 124d
Will Italy win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics? BUY No 98¢ $29 124d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? SELL No 94¢ $63 124d
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY No 95¢ $63 124d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 95¢ $63 124d
Will the Dallas Stars win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 95¢ $63 124d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? SELL No 98¢ $62 124d
Will the Detroit Red Wings win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? BUY No 98¢ $62 124d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $65 124d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $65 124d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 92¢ $60 124d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 93¢ $61 124d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $64 124d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $64 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 488 history records