Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:02:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6685…0622 crypto 204 markets active 1h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$146 (+1%) realized +$152 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate38%75W / 124L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day7.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$568now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days+$315
14 days+$164
30 days−$677
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$756
sports 0% −$2
world 0% −$1
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -7.8% -16.6% 75% 38% +13.4%
≤30d 66 -17.5% -25.4% 45% 32% -19.2%
≤90d 193 -23.3% -30.6% 38% 29% -15.6%
all 199 -24.5% -31.7% 38% 29% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.7% 29% -15.7%
10% -38.2% 24% -23.7%
15% -44.2% 21% -31.1%
20% -49.6% 19% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$18 · ×1.09 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$568
Realized+$152
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses75 / 124
Open positions5
Markets (closed)199 / 204
History coverage114d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day7.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? No 50¢ 68¢ $150 $202 +$52 (+35%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? No 57¢ 50¢ $150 $132 −$18 (-12%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Down 56¢ 100¢ $50 $90 +$40 (+80%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? Yes 35¢ 50¢ $50 $71 +$21 (+43%)
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $50 $56 +$6 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-15%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-21%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET Jun 17 $302 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET Jun 15 $357 +$31 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $42 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $15 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $9 −$8 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $258 +$145 +56%
Will Bitcoin reach $66,000 June 8-14? Jun 12 $258 +$138 +54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 8-14? Jun 09 $31 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3AM ET Jun 08 $25 −$2 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4AM ET Jun 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2AM ET Jun 08 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 1AM ET Jun 08 $473 −$114 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12AM ET Jun 08 $37 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11PM ET Jun 08 $70 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 4AM ET Jun 05 $29 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3AM ET Jun 05 $161 −$20 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12AM ET Jun 05 $50 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 1AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$10 -96%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 1-7? Jun 05 $309 +$88 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $10 −$3 -27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 04 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 4AM ET Jun 04 $220 −$28 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 3AM ET Jun 04 $31 +$6 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 04 $167 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 2AM ET Jun 04 $13 −$3 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 12AM ET Jun 04 $66 −$21 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 11PM ET Jun 04 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 5AM ET Jun 03 $72 −$36 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 4AM ET Jun 03 $290 −$2 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2AM ET Jun 03 $21 +$5 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -95%
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7? Jun 03 $206 −$200 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11PM ET Jun 03 $16 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 12AM ET Jun 03 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4AM ET Jun 02 $31 +$6 +19%
Will Bitcoin dip to $68,000 June 1-7? Jun 02 $99 −$29 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3AM ET Jun 02 $258 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 02 $247 −$102 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2AM ET Jun 02 $63 +$67 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12AM ET Jun 02 $124 +$17 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 11PM ET Jun 02 $28 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7AM ET Jun 01 $10 +$8 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 6AM ET Jun 01 $10 −$9 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5AM ET Jun 01 $18 +$33 +182%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4AM ET Jun 01 $1,074 −$472 -44%
Will Ethereum reach $2,200 May 25-31? Jun 01 $102 +$35 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down on June 1? Jun 01 $123 −$10 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 3AM ET Jun 01 $199 +$37 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $2 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $41 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $72 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $21 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $10 2h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? BUY No 57¢ $52 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 50¢ $52 24h
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 15-21? BUY No 57¢ $103 24h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? BUY No 50¢ $104 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $1 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $10 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $10 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Down 14¢ $5 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $0 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $567.97 · official $567.97 (match) · 906 history records