Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T10:17:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
66 0x6684…95d1 sports 1210 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 57d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,113 (-3%) realized −$4,138 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%674W / 526L
Whale WR79%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day46.5pace
Fees−$854est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$929now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$140
7 days+$41
14 days−$481
30 days−$2,697
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$1,766
other 40% −$649
world 0% +$169
politics 0% −$12
crypto 0% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-14.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 34 -14.1% -22.3% 47% 47% -8.3%
≤30d 407 -9.3% -17.9% 50% 49% -15.5%
≤90d 1200 -4.9% -14.0% 56% 52% -11.2%
all 1200 -4.9% -14.0% 56% 52% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover46.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.0% 52% -11.2%
10% ← realistic here -22.2% 49% -19.7%
15% -29.7% 42% -27.5%
20% -36.6% 32% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 79% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$54 vs −$73 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$929
Realized−$4,138
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses674 / 526
Whale WR (big bets)79%
Est. fees paid−$854
Open positions16
Markets (closed)1200 / 1210
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$104
Trades / day46.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 16 History 1200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 68¢ $200 $199 −$1 (-1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 13¢ $100 $86 −$14 (-14%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $42 $65 +$23 (+54%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? No 40¢ 40¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 54¢ $47 $47 +$0 (+1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 24¢ $30 $47 +$17 (+57%)
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 74¢ $30 $46 +$16 (+52%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $53 $44 −$9 (-17%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $40 $43 +$3 (+7%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 20¢ $27 $41 +$14 (+50%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $25 $21 −$4 (-16%)
Will New Zealand advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-11%)
Will Panama finish last in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 57¢ 84¢ $10 $15 +$5 (+48%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-32%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $19 $3 −$16 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 21 $158 −$158 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $330 +$172 +52%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $204 +$126 +62%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $45 −$45 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Jun 19 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $102 −$102 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $102 +$58 +57%
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $3 −$3 -100%
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro Jun 18 $31 −$31 -100%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $61 −$61 -100%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 −$101 -100%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $52 +$48 +93%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $102 +$136 +134%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$69 +68%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $97 +$103 +105%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $101 +$50 +50%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $119 +$81 +67%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $103 −$103 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $102 −$102 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $102 +$98 +97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $67 +$33 +50%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$98 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $102 +$231 +226%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $25 −$16 -64%
Stuttgart Open: Alexander Bublik vs Taylor Fritz Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $210 −$210 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $113 +$67 +60%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $53 +$47 +90%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $79 +$5 +6%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $107 −$107 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$98 +97%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 12 $79 −$79 -100%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $15 +$6 +38%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $31 −$22 -71%
HSBC Championships: Sorana Cirstea vs Emma Raducanu Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Kimmer Coppejans Jun 12 $61 −$61 -100%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $113 −$113 -100%
Libema Open: Ajla Tomljanovic vs Dayana Yastremska Jun 12 $115 −$115 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $48 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $202 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY No 40¢ $51 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 65¢ $330 27h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $58 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $105 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 73¢ $10 2d
Czechia vs. South Africa: South Africa O/U 1.5 BUY Under 81¢ $10 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $99 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 47¢ $100 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 44¢ $45 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $104 3d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $103 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $102 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $102 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 97¢ $170 3d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 12¢ $17 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 64¢ $3 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $52 3d
Nottingham Open: Yulia Starodubtseva vs Emma Navarro BUY Yulia Starodubtseva 30¢ $31 3d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $101 4d
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 68¢ $101 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $102 4d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $61 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 5d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $97 5d
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 1.5 BUY Over 59¢ $119 5d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 66¢ $67 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $928.80 · official $928.81 (match) · 3500 history records