Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:20:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6683…de6b sports 342 markets active 1h ago coverage 206d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$20,017 (-3%) realized −$20,281 · open +$264
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate67%229W / 112L
Whale WR76%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,257per market
Trades / day5.6pace
Fees−$2,146est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$1,764now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,137
7 days+$2,072
14 days+$755
30 days−$19,702
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$19,825
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-15.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +9.2% -1.2% 76% 48% -4.1%
≤30d 121 -12.6% -20.9% 59% 46% -23.1%
≤90d 226 -14.1% -22.3% 61% 43% -23.2%
all 341 -6.2% -15.1% 67% 48% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.6 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.1% 48% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -23.2% 30% -20.3%
15% -30.6% 17% -28.0%
20% -37.4% 9% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 76% (≥$3,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -5% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$563 vs −$1,330 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

206d coverage
Net worth$1,764
Realized−$20,281
Unrealized+$264
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses229 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)76%
Est. fees paid−$2,146
Open positions1
Markets (closed)341 / 342
History coverage206d
Avg bet$2,257
Trades / day5.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 341 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz Taylor Fritz 85¢ 100¢ $1,500 $1,764 +$264 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva Jun 16 $3,504 +$138 +4%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $475 −$246 -52%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,786 +$214 +12%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $713 +$1,037 +146%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $460 −$6 -1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $2,182 +$580 +27%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,013 −$51 -5%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $684 +$93 +14%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $1,437 −$785 -55%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1,164 +$118 +10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1,365 +$135 +10%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $2,583 +$102 +4%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $1,951 +$46 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,681 +$32 +2%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $621 +$278 +45%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $584 +$270 +46%
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pl Jun 12 $788 +$43 +6%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 12 $1,521 +$48 +3%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Pla Jun 12 $785 +$374 +48%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $670 +$173 +26%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $508 +$123 +24%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,057 +$139 +13%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $872 +$185 +21%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $2,004 −$1,132 -56%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $407 −$41 -10%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $1,667 +$377 +23%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $505 +$136 +27%
Stuttgart Open: Jan-Lennard Struff vs Alexander Bublik Jun 10 $1,143 +$388 +34%
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stage Jun 10 $707 −$697 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1,531 +$308 +20%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $526 +$341 +65%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN - Map 1 Winner Jun 09 $504 −$249 -50%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $902 +$97 +11%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 08 $1,332 +$12 +1%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 08 $864 +$34 +4%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $371 −$179 -48%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $304 +$208 +68%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $549 −$543 -99%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 08 $449 +$102 +23%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $379 +$70 +18%
Counter-Strike: FlyQuest vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $283 +$96 +34%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs M80 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $200 +$83 +41%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs BIG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $190 +$10 +5%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs Legacy (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $357 −$166 -47%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $277 +$80 +29%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 07 $135 +$141 +104%
LoL: KT Rolster vs Dplus KIA - Game 4 Winner Jun 07 $1,413 −$1,410 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $1,124 +$424 +38%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Monte (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $558 −$216 -39%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $960 +$379 +40%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 85¢ $1,507 1h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva SELL Alexander Zverev 100¢ $3,642 20h
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Vit Kopriva BUY Alexander Zverev 96¢ $3,504 22h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 97¢ $97 44h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 97¢ $100 44h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 4¢ $25 44h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner BUY FUT Esports 42¢ $278 44h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 89¢ $1,786 45h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 66¢ $454 45h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 65¢ $460 45h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 40¢ $713 2d
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta BUY Vitality 79¢ $2,182 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL TheMongolz 64¢ $962 2d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 66¢ $1,013 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL Gen.G 34¢ $652 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 79¢ $626 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 1 Winner BUY Gen.G 88¢ $684 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 69¢ $696 3d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY Gen.G 69¢ $115 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 90¢ $501 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 91¢ $230 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 91¢ $433 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 91¢ $15 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Vitality 91¢ $1,350 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Bilibili Gaming 100¢ $2,685 3d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Bilibili Gaming 96¢ $2,583 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $1,997 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 97¢ $431 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner BUY Gen.G 98¢ $1,520 4d
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner SELL Gen.G 100¢ $1,713 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,763.82 · official $1,763.82 (match) · 1298 history records