Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:19:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
66 0x6683…c3d6 sports 46 markets active 2h ago coverage 241d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$156 (-12%) realized −$160 · open +$4
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate36%15W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$201now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days−$38
14 days−$96
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$42
other 12% −$120
crypto 11% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -49.6% -54.4% 29% 29% -37.2%
≤30d 34 +8.4% -1.9% 38% 38% -9.8%
≤90d 37 +9.3% -1.1% 41% 41% -4.9%
all 42 -3.7% -12.9% 36% 36% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 36% -23.9%
10% -21.2% 33% -31.2%
15% -28.9% 33% -37.8%
20% -35.8% 31% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$22 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

241d coverage
Net worth$201
Realized−$160
Unrealized+$4
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses15 / 27
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions4
Markets (closed)42 / 46
History coverage241d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance Netherlands 61¢ 60¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 45¢ 42¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $38 +$8 (+26%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Japan 27¢ 26¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $20 −$10 -50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 26 $30 +$13 +44%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 23 $20 +$12 +60%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -97%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 23 $25 −$25 -98%
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -97%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$21 +70%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $10 +$20 +197%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $5 +$28 +550%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$24 +474%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $25 −$25 -99%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $30 −$17 -55%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $31 +$52 +172%
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) Jun 13 $30 −$30 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 13 $41 −$3 -8%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 +$23 +152%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $30 +$24 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $51 +$11 +22%
Spread: Spurs (-7.5) Jun 06 $30 +$24 +79%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $31 +$53 +172%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $31 +$39 +129%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $30 −$30 -98%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 30 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Celtics (-3.5) May 30 $60 +$58 +96%
Celtics vs. Nets May 30 $30 +$18 +61%
Spread: Celtics (-8.5) Jan 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-01-11? Jan 11 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Liverpool FC (-0.5) Nov 04 $63 −$63 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2025-11-04? Nov 04 $55 −$55 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Nov 01 $55 −$55 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Morocco: Team to Advance BUY Netherlands 61¢ $101 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $10 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $8 1h
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) SELL Jordan 30¢ $10 32h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 45¢ $51 2d
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) BUY Jordan 57¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 69¢ $30 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes $3 5d
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 48¢ $10 5d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 62¢ $20 6d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Netherlands 47¢ $25 6d
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 7d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 45¢ $20 8d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 9d
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 9d
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 9d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 11d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $30 12d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Algeria 58¢ $25 13d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 13d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Senegal 61¢ $30 13d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) SELL Spain 27¢ $14 13d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $30 13d
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 33¢ $10 13d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 13d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 100¢ $83 15d
Spread: Spurs (-4.5) BUY Spurs 54¢ $30 15d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks 52¢ $37 15d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $38 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $201.36 · official $201.36 (match) · 92 history records