Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:44:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6683…f5f4 sports 905 markets active 0h ago coverage 98d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,714 (-3%) realized −$1,708 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%443W / 393L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$62per market
Trades / day14.8pace
Fees−$574est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$4,279now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9,380
7 days−$7,442
14 days−$5,076
30 days−$3,437
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% −$4,014
other 15% +$1,131
world 5% +$617
politics 3% +$98
tech 0% +$69
crypto 0% −$12
culture 0% −$136
finance 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 219 -35.0% -41.2% 35% 34% -53.3%
≤30d 339 -6.1% -15.1% 52% 50% -22.9%
≤90d 836 -2.1% -11.5% 53% 52% -13.4%
all 836 -2.1% -11.5% 53% 52% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 52% -13.4%
10% -19.9% 49% -21.7%
15% -27.7% 45% -29.3%
20% -34.8% 39% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -1% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$50 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

98d coverage
Net worth$4,279
Realized−$1,708
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses443 / 393
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$574
Open positions69
Markets (closed)836 / 905
History coverage98d
Avg bet$62
Trades / day14.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 69 History 836 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
No one announced as next James Bond? Yes 88¢ 93¢ $240 $254 +$14 (+6%)
US bank failure by June 30? No 91¢ 92¢ $213 $216 +$4 (+2%)
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Yes 66¢ 88¢ $114 $153 +$39 (+34%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 73¢ 86¢ $108 $127 +$18 (+17%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 89¢ 88¢ $117 $117 −$1 (-1%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 78¢ 78¢ $112 $112 +$0 (+0%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 91¢ $89 $106 +$17 (+19%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June? No 80¢ 82¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 93¢ $88 $94 +$6 (+6%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 79¢ 78¢ $91 $90 −$1 (-1%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 77¢ 90¢ $75 $89 +$13 (+18%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 71¢ 70¢ $89 $88 −$1 (-1%)
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 95¢ $81 $87 +$6 (+8%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 47¢ 38¢ $103 $85 −$19 (-18%)
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 62¢ 93¢ $56 $84 +$28 (+51%)
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary election? Yes 75¢ 63¢ $97 $82 −$15 (-16%)
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 76¢ $68 $75 +$6 (+9%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? No 83¢ 91¢ $66 $73 +$6 (+10%)
Will Austria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 82¢ 86¢ $68 $72 +$4 (+5%)
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Yes 31¢ 48¢ $47 $72 +$25 (+54%)
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Pittsburgh Pirates 54¢ 55¢ $70 $71 +$1 (+1%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 64¢ 95¢ $46 $68 +$22 (+48%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 72¢ $64 $68 +$4 (+7%)
Will Spain win Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 79¢ 72¢ $73 $67 −$6 (-8%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 65¢ 68¢ $62 $65 +$3 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Makarska: Elina Avanesyan vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 17 $102 −$36 -35%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 17 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Spread: Knicks (-3.5) Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Wes Schultz vs. Ben Johnston (Middleweight, Prelims) Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: New York Mets vs. Col Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
SHL: Roegle vs. Skellefteaa Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Ilkley: Tatiana Prozorova vs Sinja Kraus Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 17 $14 −$14 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 17 $33 −$33 -100%
Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Nottingham Open: Ann Li vs Kimberly Birrell Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) Jun 17 $41 −$41 -100%
Jakub Mensik vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 17 $32 −$32 -100%
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 17 $34 −$34 -100%
Will annual inflation be 4.3% in May? Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 17 $52 −$52 -100%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Ayo Dosunmu: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Nottingham Open: Himeno Sakatsume vs Jessica Bouzas Maneiro Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 217.5 Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 17 $49 −$49 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 17 $48 −$48 -100%
Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 17 $35 −$35 -100%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Libema Open: Katie Volynets vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
HSBC Championships: Katie Boulter vs Leylah Fernandez Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Valorant: LOUD vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Group Alpha Jun 17 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 17 $29 −$29 -100%
LoL: Team Heretics vs Shifters (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 17 $46 −$46 -100%
Valorant: Global Esports vs FULL SENSE (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Jack Pinnington Jones vs. Denis Shapovalov: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Honduras end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 49¢ $49 23m
Will Norway reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 84¢ $35 1h
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June? BUY Yes 54¢ $31 1h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 54¢ $36 1h
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? BUY Yes 82¢ $62 1h
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? BUY Yes 35¢ $29 1h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 52¢ $45 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $90 1h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? SELL Yes 99¢ $95 2h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 54¢ $36 6h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 17? BUY Yes 37¢ $35 6h
Minnesota Lynx vs. Los Angeles Sparks: O/U 177.5 BUY Over 49¢ $62 8h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $7 9h
Will Austria reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $33 11h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL No 58¢ $78 11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY FURIA 74¢ $28 12h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 59¢ $48 12h
Halle Open: Zizou Bergs vs Taylor Fritz BUY Zizou Bergs 21¢ $13 12h
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY No 54¢ $73 12h
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? SELL No 89¢ $95 12h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Angels 50¢ $39 25h
Chicago White Sox vs. New York Yankees BUY Chicago White Sox 43¢ $34 25h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $6 29h
Halle Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Raphael Collignon BUY Raphael Collignon 56¢ $34 36h
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 34¢ $26 36h
Will DR Congo advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu BUY Yes 39¢ $43 36h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 89¢ $118 36h
Bu vs. Virtanen: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Under 51¢ $34 45h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $44 45h
Will USD fall to 1.6M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL Yes 95¢ $0 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,279.37 · official $4,279.07 (match) · 2222 history records