Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T14:43:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
66 0x667a…01cf other 162 markets active 19h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$39 (+5%) realized +$39 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +8% what you keep after slip
Net edge+8%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate53%86W / 76L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit44%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$10
7 days+$34
14 days+$34
30 days+$80
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 72% +$55
sports 21% −$21
crypto 5% +$16
finance 1% −$11
world 1% −$4
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -7.5% -16.3% 50% 50% +12.3%
≤30d 19 +21.2% +9.7% 58% 58% +25.4%
≤90d 50 +0.2% -9.3% 46% 46% -6.1%
all 162 +19.2% +7.9% 53% 53% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +7.9% 53% -5.8%
10% -2.4% 52% -14.8%
15% -11.9% 51% -23.1%
20% -20.5% 47% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +19% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +24% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.95 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.08 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$39
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses86 / 76
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)162 / 162
History coverage131d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit44%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 162 Trades
no open positions (67 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 +$14 +67%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $16 +$14 +86%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $26 +$34 +132%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $17 +$13 +73%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $13 −$13 -98%
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $11 +$11 +101%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 10 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +50%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $12 +$14 +116%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Elche CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $3 +$3 +105%
Will Real Sociedad de Fútbol win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $2 +$3 +114%
Will Deportivo Alavés win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $7 +$15 +204%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $20 +$30 +154%
Will SSC Napoli win on 2026-05-11? May 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $10 +$8 +83%
Will Atalanta BC win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-10? May 10 $11 −$11 -98%
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 2.5 May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will SC Freiburg win on 2026-05-07? May 07 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $17 +$13 +76%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 06 $19 −$18 -99%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 10.5 Total Corners May 05 $10 +$9 +86%
Will Nottingham Forest FC win on 2026-05-04? May 04 $7 −$7 -98%
Will Stade Rennais FC 1901 win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $3 +$3 +93%
Will Olympique Lyonnais win on 2026-05-03? May 04 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $20 +$38 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? Apr 19 $10 +$13 +134%
Will Sport Lisboa e Benfica win on 2026-04-19? Apr 19 $13 −$13 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Sevilla FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $17 −$16 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-04? Apr 11 $5 +$12 +223%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $15 −$15 -98%
Will AC Milan win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-04? Apr 04 $14 −$14 -98%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-02-15? Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $5 +$4 +88%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $5 +$15 +300%
Will AS Roma win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $6 +$4 +72%
Will FC Porto win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Athletic Club win on 2026-03-22? Mar 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 22 $12 +$4 +39%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $5 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 18h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 59¢ $15 18h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 80¢ $10 21h
Spread: Spain (-1.5) BUY Spain 50¢ $3 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $1 42h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 52¢ $1 42h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $5 42h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 53¢ $9 43h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 43¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $10 2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 42¢ $5 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 57¢ $1 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 57¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 25¢ $13 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 57¢ $6 3d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 5d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 55¢ $5 5d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 52¢ $5 5d
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) BUY Chicago Cubs 52¢ $5 5d
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 55¢ $5 5d
Cincinnati Reds vs. San Diego Padres: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 49¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 6d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 38¢ $1 16d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 46¢ $5 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 16d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY No 47¢ $6 16d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 22d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 22d
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 22d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 359 history records