Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:24:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
66 0x6677…425c world 59 markets active 8h ago coverage 322d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$48 (+1%) realized +$48 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate42%25W / 34L
Drawdown21%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$12
30 days+$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 63% +$15
other 22% +$4
finance 6% $0
sports 4% +$30
politics 3% −$1
economics 1% $0
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +1.0% -8.6% 67% 11% -8.6%
≤30d 28 -0.6% -10.1% 54% 4% -9.2%
≤90d 31 +0.7% -8.9% 52% 6% -9.1%
all 59 +2.0% -7.7% 42% 8% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 8% -8.5%
10% -16.5% 5% -17.3%
15% -24.6% 3% -25.2%
20% -32.0% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 64% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×2.21 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.25 per $1 lost it wins $3.25
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

322d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$48
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses25 / 34
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage322d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown21%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $110 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $202 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $111 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $76 +$4 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $75 −$12 -16%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $46 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $4 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $106 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $83 +$15 +18%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 09 $104 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 08 $42 −$5 -13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 08 $96 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $187 +$2 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $312 +$5 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $159 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $216 +$1 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $70 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 03 $92 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 02 $91 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $261 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $169 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $115 +$1 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 28 $39 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $6 −$1 -15%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 20 $218 $0 -0%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 19 $1 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 18 $15 +$6 +40%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 15 $89 $0 -0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $87 $0 -0%
Spread: Grizzlies (-4.5) Mar 15 $39 +$30 +76%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 15 $2 $0 -9%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 13 $214 +$2 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from March 10 to March 17, 2026? Mar 12 $9 +$1 +11%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026? Mar 12 $193 $0 -0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be greater than 150% on August 15? Aug 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 02 $5 $0 -0%
Will Pam Bondi leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 02 $4 $0 +1%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 National League Championship? Aug 02 $40 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 02 $52 $0 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 01 $51 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 01 $55 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 01 $61 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 62¢ $110 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 62¢ $110 7h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $110 25h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $110 25h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $111 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $111 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $9 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $12 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 23¢ $48 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 22¢ $66 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $9 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $15 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $22 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 20¢ $12 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $75 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $10 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $1 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $11 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 32¢ $46 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 32¢ $46 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $94 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $13 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $106 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 254 history records