Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:54:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6677…799b sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 42d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialist⚠ Small sampleP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$9,175 (+20%) realized +$9,175 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -63% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -70% what you keep after slip
Net edge-70%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate17%2W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,854per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$708est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 42d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 65% −$19,124
other 20% −$9,050
crypto 16% −$4,303
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-66.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 5 -47.0% -52.1% 20% 20% -57.7%
≤90d 12 -63.3% -66.8% 17% 17% -78.0%
all 12 -63.3% -66.8% 17% 17% -78.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -66.8% 17% -78.0%
10% ← realistic here -70.0% 17% -80.1%
15% -72.9% 17% -82.1%
20% -75.5% 17% -83.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 92% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -78% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -63% · $-wt -78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -71% → late -56% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,050 vs −$3,858 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$9,175
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses2 / 10
Est. fees paid−$708
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage42d
Avg bet$3,854
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions (8 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $3,964 −$3,907 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,030 −$1,000 -97%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? Jun 10 $9,050 −$9,050 -100%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 22 $3,418 +$5,639 +165%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $2,057 −$2,000 -97%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 11 $1,152 −$1,125 -98%
LeBron James: Points O/U 20.5 May 11 $608 +$460 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 07 $6,548 −$3,544 -54%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 07 $1,026 −$1,000 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 06 $759 −$759 -100%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 04 $6,660 −$6,500 -98%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 04 $9,972 −$9,692 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 52¢ $3,964 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Derrick Lewis $1,030 2h
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? BUY Yes 49¢ $9,050 24d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes SELL Canadiens 100¢ $9,057 24d
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes BUY Canadiens 37¢ $3,418 25d
Spurs vs. Thunder BUY Spurs $2,057 25d
Thunder vs. Lakers BUY Lakers 19¢ $1,152 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $17 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $69 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $73 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $13 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $104 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $104 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $104 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $105 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $104 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $104 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 35¢ $105 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $103 38d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 38d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 96 history records