Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T15:43:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x6676…b216 sports 343 markets active 0h ago coverage 920d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$21 (+0%) realized +$32 · open −$11
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate45%125W / 152L
Drawdown72%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$220now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$8
7 days+$4
14 days−$15
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 33% −$28
sports 23% +$6
politics 20% −$50
crypto 11% −$3
economics 6% +$1
world 5% +$67
tech 1% +$23
finance 1% +$1
culture 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +3.2% -6.7% 58% 44% -6.7%
≤30d 220 +8.5% -1.8% 47% 36% -6.2%
≤90d 225 +8.9% -1.4% 47% 36% -5.0%
all 277 +6.6% -3.5% 45% 33% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.5% 33% -9.1%
10% -12.8% 27% -17.8%
15% -21.2% 22% -25.7%
20% -28.9% 17% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
26% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +10% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

920d coverage
Net worth$220
Realized+$32
Unrealized−$11
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses125 / 152
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions66
Markets (closed)277 / 343
History coverage920d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown72%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 66 History 277 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 26¢ $6 $16 +$10 (+180%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 26¢ 42¢ $5 $8 +$3 (+58%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? No 77¢ 100¢ $6 $8 +$2 (+30%)
Will Jared Kushner attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 29¢ 55¢ $4 $7 +$3 (+88%)
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $7 $7 +$0 (+1%)
Will Neymar Jr. score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 60¢ 66¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+10%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 58¢ 66¢ $6 $7 +$1 (+15%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 78¢ 86¢ $6 $6 +$1 (+10%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 71¢ 72¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+0%)
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? No 80¢ 82¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+3%)
Will Ed Markey be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts? Yes 75¢ 72¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-4%)
Will AfD win an absolute majority of seats in Sachsen-Anhalt? No 60¢ 56¢ $6 $6 −$0 (-8%)
Will Russia invade another country in 2026? No 88¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? No 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 29¢ 26¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-13%)
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 90¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Nick Fuentes arrested by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will Anthropic’s market cap be 1.8T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31 2027? Yes 60¢ 48¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-20%)
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? Yes 60¢ 56¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-7%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-2%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections? No 76¢ 84¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 68 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? Jun 15 $6 +$1 +19%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 15 $1 +$2 +176%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 15 $5 −$1 -27%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 15 $3 $0 -10%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $11 $0 +4%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 14 $3 $0 -15%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 14 $1 $0 +20%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen Jun 14 $8 $0 -6%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $1 $0 +5%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Germany (-5.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -99%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 14 $5 $0 +2%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $6 +$5 +76%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +57%
Will there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026 Jun 14 $4 +$4 +88%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $3 +$2 +59%
Will Russia capture Havrylivka by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +3%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1 +$1 +60%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
Switzerland leading at halftime? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +61%
Russia x Ukraine Peace Parlay Jun 13 $2 $0 -2%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $6 +$1 +13%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +38%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $6 $0 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $1 $0 +12%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +79%
Will Trump announce no pick for the next Director of National Intellig Jun 10 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 10 $3 +$2 +49%
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? Jun 10 $1 $0 +6%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 10 $2 −$2 -98%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 10 $4 $0 -4%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 09 $6 +$1 +10%
Will any flight depart from Imam Khomeini International Airport by Jun Jun 08 $0 +$1 +110%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 08 $4 +$1 +34%
Counter-Strike: Astralis vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 +$1 +140%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 08 $21 −$1 -5%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $1 $0 -11%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 08 $6 +$1 +17%
Fed rate hike in 2026? Jun 08 $8 +$3 +33%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs BIG (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 07 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $1 9m
Flávio Bolsonaro charged or arrested by September 30? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 9m
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $1 9m
Will Alan Wilson win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican prima BUY No 33¢ $3 9m
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY No 63¢ $3 9m
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 45¢ $2 10m
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 1h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL No 70¢ $1 1h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $2.5T by June 30? SELL Yes 50¢ $5 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju SELL Yes 28¢ $3 2h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $1 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes $1 2h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 48¢ $1 6h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? SELL No 51¢ $3 7h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 13h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri SELL Yes 38¢ $1 14h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 78¢ $1 14h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 14h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri SELL Yes 35¢ $2 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 16h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $3 16h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 16h
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 22¢ $1 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 31¢ $6 17h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 31¢ $2 17h
Insurrection Act invoked by December 31? BUY No 83¢ $2 19h
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $1 19h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 52¢ $3 19h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes $1 21h
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri BUY Yes 40¢ $1 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.79 · official $219.80 (match) · 990 history records