Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:35:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6676…22f3 sports 419 markets active 2h ago coverage 79d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,856 (-4%) realized −$1,833 · open −$23
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate49%205W / 211L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$123per market
Trades / day31.9pace
Fees−$841est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$117now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$530
7 days−$1,652
14 days−$1,465
30 days−$3,049
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$2,636
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -19.0% -26.7% 43% 43% -27.9%
≤30d 205 -8.8% -17.5% 47% 47% -19.9%
≤90d 416 -3.3% -12.6% 49% 49% -14.1%
all 416 -3.3% -12.6% 49% 49% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover31.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.6% 49% -14.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.9% 49% -22.4%
15% -28.6% 48% -29.9%
20% -35.6% 46% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$113 vs −$123 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

79d coverage
Net worth$117
Realized−$1,833
Unrealized−$23
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses205 / 211
Est. fees paid−$841
Open positions3
Markets (closed)416 / 419
History coverage79d
Avg bet$123
Trades / day31.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 416 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Detroit Tigers vs. Cleveland Guardians Cleveland Guardians 52¢ 40¢ $100 $77 −$23 (-23%)
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Washington Nationals 54¢ 54¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ 52¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $51 +$42 +83%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 +$58 +114%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $25 −$25 -100%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $153 −$153 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros Jun 17 $153 −$153 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $153 −$153 -100%
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $25 +$24 +93%
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) Jun 17 $101 +$68 +67%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals Jun 17 $101 +$65 +64%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $152 +$105 +69%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 15 $101 −$101 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $152 −$152 -100%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 15 $152 −$152 -100%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 14 $102 +$107 +105%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$60 +60%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $101 +$78 +77%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $101 +$70 +69%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 14 $102 +$122 +120%
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 14 $91 −$91 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Jun 14 $101 −$101 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 14 $102 −$102 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $152 −$152 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $153 −$153 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $76 +$42 +55%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $102 +$98 +97%
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $101 +$91 +90%
Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 +$84 +83%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $101 +$78 +77%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $152 −$152 -100%
Spread: Milwaukee Brewers (-1.5) Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5) Jun 13 $101 −$101 -100%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $153 −$153 -100%
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 13 $153 −$153 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 13 $102 −$102 -100%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 13 $153 −$153 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $152 −$152 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 13 $153 −$153 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 52¢ $20 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 54¢ $20 2h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 93¢ $66 8h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 93¢ $66 8h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals SELL Washington Nationals 93¢ $34 8h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $38 12h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $20 12h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $38 13h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $20 13h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $31 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $41 13h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 56¢ $41 14h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $31 14h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $38 15h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $20 15h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros BUY Detroit Tigers 39¢ $38 16h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $31 16h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 55¢ $20 17h
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 56¢ $30 17h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $31 18h
Detroit Tigers vs. Houston Astros: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 51¢ $25 19h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 55¢ $25 19h
Minnesota Twins vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 56¢ $20 19h
Spread: Los Angeles Angels (-1.5) BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 63¢ $101 19h
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5) BUY St. Louis Cardinals 65¢ $101 19h
Spread: New York Mets (-1.5) BUY Cincinnati Reds 59¢ $101 19h
Spread: Toronto Blue Jays (-1.5) BUY Boston Red Sox 61¢ $101 19h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 40¢ $31 20h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 55¢ $20 20h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $51 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.87 · official $116.87 (match) · 2890 history records