Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T05:16:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
66 0x6673…1863 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 5d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$26 (+5%) realized +$26 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day1.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$101now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$27
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -16.7% -24.6% 75% 50% -3.3%
≤30d 4 -16.7% -24.6% 75% 50% -3.3%
≤90d 4 -16.7% -24.6% 75% 50% -3.3%
all 4 -16.7% -24.6% 75% 50% -3.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 50% -3.3%
10% -31.8% 0% -12.6%
15% -38.4% 0% -21.0%
20% -44.5% 0% -28.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$15 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.79 per $1 lost it wins $2.79
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$101
Realized+$26
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 7
History coverage5d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day1.5
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $90 +$18 +20%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $187 +$22 +12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND BUY 26¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 99¢ $100 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $90 26h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? AN BUY 50¢ $71 26h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 47¢ $15 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 40¢ $31 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $187 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $101.42 · official $111.42 · 9 history records