Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T13:11:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x6670…88ae other 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 99d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$186 (-9%) realized −$145 · open −$41
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate44%23W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$44
7 days+$174
14 days+$107
30 days+$148
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 48% +$87
sports 29% −$87
world 16% −$43
politics 4% +$64
crypto 2% +$29
finance 1% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +12.5% +1.8% 44% 44% +17.0%
≤30d 35 -0.1% -9.6% 43% 40% +2.9%
≤90d 52 +0.8% -8.8% 44% 42% -3.1%
all 52 +0.8% -8.8% 44% 42% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 42% -3.1%
10% -17.5% 42% -12.3%
15% -25.5% 40% -20.8%
20% -32.8% 38% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$21 · ×1.49 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.19 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

99d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$145
Unrealized−$41
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses23 / 29
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions4
Markets (closed)52 / 64
History coverage99d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 52 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 19¢ 23¢ $15 $19 +$4 (+24%)
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance Japan 27¢ 26¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-2%)
Kash Patel out by June 30? Yes 40¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-98%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by June 30? Yes 25¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $51 −$3 -6%
Will Austria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 29 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $40 +$64 +162%
Will Sweden advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 26 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 26 $41 −$41 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $51 +$51 +101%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) Jun 25 $51 +$30 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $51 −$1 -2%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 24 $51 −$51 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $36 +$54 +150%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $51 −$4 -8%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $31 +$39 +129%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $30 +$20 +65%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $51 +$76 +149%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 20 $51 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Jun 20 $30 +$22 +74%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? Jun 20 $5 +$1 +25%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -100%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- Jun 20 $45 +$70 +157%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $15 −$1 -5%
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $10 −$4 -37%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 19 $20 −$3 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +70%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $30 +$24 +79%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $30 +$18 +61%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $30 +$56 +186%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 02 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Tottenham be relegated from the English Premier League after the May 25 $115 −$115 -100%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 18 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? May 18 $51 +$32 +63%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 04 $50 +$36 +72%
Kash Patel out by April 30? May 01 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Apr 30 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Apr 30 $11 +$28 +265%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 30 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 30 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 30 $10 +$6 +55%
James Comey arrested by April 30? Apr 29 $15 −$15 -98%
James Comey arrested by April 29? Apr 29 $15 −$13 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Apr 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 14 $50 +$25 +50%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $30 +$21 +70%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: Team to Advance BUY Japan 27¢ $15 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 56¢ $48 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $51 33h
Brazil to score first vs. Japan? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY 57¢ $20 2d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY 30¢ $15 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 37¢ $40 3d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) AND Jordan vs. Argentina: Both Teams to Score BUY 51¢ $50 3d
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) AND Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) BUY 34¢ $51 4d
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 39¢ $41 4d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 5d
Spread: Morocco (-1.5) BUY Morocco 62¢ $51 5d
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 49¢ $51 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL 58¢ $50 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06 BUY 32¢ $102 5d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 46¢ $30 5d
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY England 61¢ $51 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? SELL 52¢ $47 6d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY 55¢ $51 6d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY 39¢ $36 6d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $31 6d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 60¢ $30 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY 58¢ $51 7d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 39¢ $51 8d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY 44¢ $51 9d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL 41¢ $52 9d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 SELL No 80¢ $52 9d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? SELL No 21¢ $6 9d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY 39¢ $51 9d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06- BUY 36¢ $41 10d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $14 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.98 · official $53.84 · 192 history records