Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:53:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x666f…a240 sports 15 markets active 14h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$88 (+15%) realized +$88 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate60%9W / 6L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day3.2pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +0.3% -9.3% 60% 47% +3.2%
≤30d 15 +0.3% -9.3% 60% 47% +3.2%
≤90d 15 +0.3% -9.3% 60% 47% +3.2%
all 15 +0.3% -9.3% 60% 47% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 47% +3.2%
10% -18.0% 47% -6.7%
15% -25.9% 47% -15.7%
20% -33.2% 47% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$25 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.53 per $1 lost it wins $1.53
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$88
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses9 / 6
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage6d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day3.2
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves Jun 17 $23 +$2 +9%
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 17 $24 −$24 -100%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 17 $55 +$49 +90%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 16 $21 +$12 +60%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 16 $35 +$29 +83%
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals Jun 16 $51 +$37 +73%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Jun 14 $46 +$30 +65%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 13 $51 +$46 +90%
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals Jun 13 $52 +$2 +4%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $35 +$22 +62%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $72 −$22 -30%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 45¢ $23 13h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves SELL San Francisco Giants 46¢ $2 14h
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 52¢ $55 31h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 40¢ $23 32h
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Miami Marlins 39¢ $24 33h
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 62¢ $21 2d
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY New York Mets 45¢ $9 2d
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 54¢ $35 2d
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals BUY St. Louis Cardinals 57¢ $51 2d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Chicago White Sox 36¢ $9 4d
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 60¢ $46 4d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $60 4d
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Cincinnati Reds 52¢ $25 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Seattle Mariners 58¢ $32 5d
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Houston Astros 52¢ $51 5d
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals BUY Washington Nationals 43¢ $20 5d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $35 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Kansas City Royals 52¢ $48 6d
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals BUY Texas Rangers 48¢ $24 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records