Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:36:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
66 0x666d…0db9 crypto 131 markets active 24h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$34 (+4%) realized +$56 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate48%59W / 64L
Drawdown69%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day19.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$166now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$26
14 days+$49
30 days+$49
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$16
other 36% +$16
sports 7% +$28
world 1% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 69 +0.4% -9.2% 45% 43% -3.4%
≤30d 123 +20.8% +9.3% 48% 47% -2.1%
≤90d 123 +20.8% +9.3% 48% 47% -2.1%
all 123 +20.8% +9.3% 48% 47% -2.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.3% 47% -2.1%
10% -1.2% 41% -11.5%
15% -10.7% 37% -20.0%
20% -19.5% 28% -27.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +21% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +40% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$3 · ×1.35 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.25 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$166
Realized+$56
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses59 / 64
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions8
Markets (closed)123 / 131
History coverage10d
Avg bet$6
Trades / day19.2
Drawdown69%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 123 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $117 $97 −$19 (-17%)
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $42 $44 +$2 (+5%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-25%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+9%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $7 $5 −$2 (-32%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 44¢ 40¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 26¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 19¢ 18¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 51 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran Jun 14 $6 −$6 -95%
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 14 $5 +$59 +1155%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P Jun 13 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $15 +$5 +31%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $15 +$4 +24%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $5 +$2 +44%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$2 +42%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +11%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +25%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO1) - XSE Pro League Group Stage Jun 11 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 +$1 +54%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $1 +$2 +205%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Hanne Vandewinkel Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$4 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$5 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 11 $11 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 11 $20 +$3 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $31 −$6 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$6 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 10 $12 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 10 $6 +$3 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 10 $15 −$7 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 10 $10 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 10 $5 +$3 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 23h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 47h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 47h
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 2d
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran SELL Yes 1¢ $0 2d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 2d
Will Max Verstappen finish on the podium at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Gran BUY Yes 18¢ $6 2d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 3d
Will Max Verstappen get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 5¢ $1 3d
Will Lewis Hamilton get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand P BUY Yes 9¢ $3 3d
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $5 3d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $15 3d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 3d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 76¢ $15 4d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 100¢ $19 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $4 4d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 4d
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic SELL Donna Vekic 100¢ $10 4d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 0¢ $10 4d
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 80¢ $10 5d
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $2 5d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 80¢ $5 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $5 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.99 · official $165.99 (match) · 248 history records