Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:41:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x666a…2f47 politics 149 markets active 1h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%20W / 129L
Whale WR22%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 26% +$4
politics 24% −$10
other 23% −$10
crypto 11% +$5
economics 5% −$1
world 4% −$2
culture 3% −$1
finance 2% $0
tech 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.5% -10.0% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 19 -0.4% -9.9% 11% 0% -9.7%
all 149 -0.1% -9.6% 13% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.2%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 23% · top 2 45% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 22% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.25 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses20 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)22%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)149 / 149
History coverage166d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 149 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 24 $51 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 13 $417 −$1 -0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $56 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 23 $62 −$3 -5%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 15 $39 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 31 $220 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 30 $57 $0 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Mar 30 $58 $0 -0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Mar 30 $178 −$1 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 29 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 29 $167 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 29 $356 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $542 −$2 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 28 $174 −$1 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 28 $525 +$1 +0%
Will Michigan State win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 27 $175 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 27 $364 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $130 by end of March? Mar 26 $176 +$1 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Mar 26 $169 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 26 $173 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $367 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March? Mar 25 $168 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 25 $170 +$1 +1%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Mar 24 $169 −$2 -1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 24 $179 $0 -0%
Will St. John's win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 24 $172 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $170 −$1 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 23 $183 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 23 $171 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 22 $184 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 22 $372 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in March? Mar 22 $362 +$2 +0%
Will the Columbus Blue Jackets win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 22 $181 −$2 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Mar 21 $346 −$2 -1%
Will Illinois win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 21 $175 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 21 $568 −$1 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Mar 21 $173 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in March? Mar 20 $176 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 20 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 20 $186 −$1 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 19 $175 −$1 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 19 $259 −$1 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Mar 19 $175 +$1 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 18 $549 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 17 $197 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 17 $294 −$1 -0%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 17 $178 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 16 $187 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $189 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $51 1h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $51 8h
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 92¢ $48 11d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 93¢ $48 11d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $56 24d
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $56 24d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? SELL No 92¢ $58 31d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? BUY No 97¢ $62 32d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet SELL Yes 98¢ $39 39d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 98¢ $39 40d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $51 85d
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $51 85d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 97¢ $57 85d
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $57 86d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 92¢ $58 86d
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 92¢ $58 86d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? SELL No 97¢ $178 86d
Will Trump visit China by April 30? BUY No 97¢ $178 86d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $168 86d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $168 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $177 86d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $177 86d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $167 87d
Will Italy win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $167 87d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $167 87d
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $167 87d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL No 96¢ $168 87d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY No 96¢ $168 87d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $175 87d
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $134 88d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 573 history records