Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T21:19:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6663…68ca crypto 55 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d only
✗ bot/MM pace (3447 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2,538 (+6%) realized +$1,667 · open +$871
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -30% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -46% what you keep after slip
Net edge-46%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%43W / 70L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$793per market
Trades / day3447.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,084now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$2,174
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (3447 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-37.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 113 -30.5% -37.1% 38% 2% -8.6%
≤30d 113 -30.5% -37.1% 38% 2% -8.6%
≤90d 113 -30.5% -37.1% 38% 2% -8.6%
all 113 -30.5% -37.1% 38% 2% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3447.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -37.1% 2% -8.6%
10% ← realistic here -43.1% 2% -17.3%
15% -48.6% 2% -25.3%
20% -53.7% 2% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 85% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -31% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$650) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +10% → late -71% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
62.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$14 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$2,084
Realized+$1,667
Unrealized+$871
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses43 / 70
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)113 / 55
History coverage1d ⚠
Avg bet$793
Trades / day3447.0
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 113 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Down 96¢ 52¢ $1,775 $970 −$805 (-45%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Up 3¢ 48¢ $56 $940 +$885 (+1592%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Up 93¢ 100¢ $162 $173 +$11 (+7%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 6¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 60 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $0 +$1 +1568%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Team Liquid vs Shopify Rebellion (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $44 −$44 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 16 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 16 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 16 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 16 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $6 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $78 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $85 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $8 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $11 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $9 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $121 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $19 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $0 1m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,084.47 · official $2,083.96 (match) · 3500 history records