Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T08:12:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x665f…16cf world 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 531d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-1%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate32%24W / 50L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$2
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% −$2
other 18% −$11
politics 17% +$1
sports 9% $0
economics 6% $0
finance 4% $0
crypto 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.3% -9.3% 50% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 28 -0.1% -9.6% 32% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 65 +0.2% -9.4% 32% 2% -9.6%
all 74 -2.1% -11.4% 32% 1% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 1% -10.0%
10% -19.9% 0% -18.6%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.27 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

531d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses24 / 50
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage531d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $31 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $9 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 18 $30 $0 +2%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $94 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $6 $0 -2%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $32 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $31 $0 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $28 +$1 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $11 $0 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $30 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $32 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $30 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 08 $32 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $32 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 05 $63 $0 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 03 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 03 $40 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 03 $29 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 02 $99 −$3 -3%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 02 $29 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 30 $129 $0 -0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 29 $91 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 29 $41 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 28 $16 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $60 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $32 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 23 $36 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 19 $37 $0 +0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $4 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 14 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $59 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $98 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $60 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $2 $0 -2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 20 $65 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 14 $58 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $33 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 13 $61 $0 -0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $29 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $33 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 10 $62 $0 +0%
JD Vance diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? Apr 10 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $65 $0 -0%
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 09 $58 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $33 1h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $33 4h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $1 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 86¢ $30 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 85¢ $31 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $9 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 64¢ $31 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $4 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $26 5d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $9 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $9 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $3 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $24 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $27 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 8¢ $6 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $2 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $1 8d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 8¢ $3 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $33 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $32 8d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $0 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 81¢ $29 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $28 9d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $20 10d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $9 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 279 history records