Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:39:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x665b…ad7f world 72 markets active 11h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-1%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate32%23W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$13
30 days−$16
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$18
politics 23% −$4
other 19% $0
sports 6% −$13
economics 3% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -6.2% -15.2% 0% 0% -15.5%
≤30d 27 -2.8% -12.0% 30% 0% -11.4%
≤90d 70 -1.1% -10.6% 33% 1% -10.4%
all 71 -2.5% -11.8% 32% 1% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.8% 1% -10.9%
10% -20.3% 1% -19.5%
15% -28.0% 0% -27.2%
20% -35.0% 0% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses23 / 48
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)71 / 72
History coverage484d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026? No 98¢ 97¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $31 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 15 $15 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $29 −$1 -3%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $16 −$1 -5%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $25 −$9 -35%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $27 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $25 $0 -1%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $25 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 08 $50 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $37 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $53 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $49 −$2 -4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $27 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $7 $0 +5%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $53 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 01 $26 +$1 +5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 01 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 30 $9 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $78 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 28 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 25 $29 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 24 $60 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $21 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 21 $19 −$3 -17%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 19 $24 −$2 -9%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 18 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 17 $61 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $33 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 16 $30 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 26 $86 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 26 $87 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 25 $33 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $30 $0 +1%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 23 $96 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $7 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $69 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $3 $0 +4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $66 $0 +0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $6 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $35 −$2 -7%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 13 $77 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $34 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 31¢ $16 10h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 31¢ $16 10h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $15 38h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $15 41h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $4 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $2 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $4 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $1 45h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $5 45h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $15 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $10 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $12 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $11 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $6 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $16 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $11 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $6 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 33¢ $7 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 33¢ $9 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 51¢ $25 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $27 6d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 83¢ $27 6d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $25 8d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $25 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 67¢ $5 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.72 · official $1.00 · 251 history records