Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T23:34:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6659…792b sports 90 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$204 (-8%) realized −$222 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate53%45W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$45now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$97
7 days−$247
14 days−$137
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$65
other 20% −$241
crypto 3% −$27
world 1% −$2
politics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +20.7% +9.2% 50% 50% -30.5%
≤30d 49 +19.6% +8.2% 57% 57% -12.3%
≤90d 61 +16.3% +5.2% 57% 56% -13.7%
all 85 +3.8% -6.0% 53% 52% -15.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.0% 52% -15.7%
10% -15.0% 47% -23.8%
15% -23.2% 45% -31.2%
20% -30.8% 39% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$29 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.8 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$45
Realized−$222
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses45 / 40
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions4
Markets (closed)85 / 90
History coverage158d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 85 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Yes 37¢ 100¢ $10 $27 +$17 (+169%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 68¢ 81¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Yes 14¢ 12¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $7 +$7 +101%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $5 +$6 +124%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$5 +250%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 +$7 +325%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$4 -76%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$16 +307%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$9 -84%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +61%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $126 +$75 +60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $64 −$46 -72%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $152 −$150 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 13 $192 −$190 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $36 +$4 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $136 +$51 +38%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $71 −$70 -99%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $81 +$113 +138%
Victor Wembanyama: Points O/U 27.5 Jun 11 $57 −$56 -99%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 09 $36 +$39 +110%
Houston Astros vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 09 $22 +$12 +55%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $202 +$58 +29%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 02 $190 −$188 -99%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $83 +$107 +129%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 29 $32 −$32 -99%
Chet Holmgren: Rebounds O/U 8.5 May 29 $10 −$10 -98%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 May 29 $20 −$20 -99%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 29 $22 +$14 +62%
De'Aaron Fox: Assists O/U 5.5 May 29 $20 +$14 +70%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $46 +$31 +67%
De'Aaron Fox: Rebounds O/U 3.5 May 27 $41 +$29 +71%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander: Assists O/U 7.5 May 27 $10 +$8 +79%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 26 $76 −$36 -47%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $86 +$71 +82%
OG Anunoby: Rebounds O/U 5.5 May 26 $10 +$12 +118%
OG Anunoby: Points O/U 15.5 May 26 $10 +$11 +105%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $50 +$35 +70%
Victor Wembanyama: Assists O/U 3.5 May 25 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET May 24 $5 $0 -0%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $99 +$93 +93%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 22 $118 −$116 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 22 $82 +$36 +45%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $24 −$23 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $11 +$13 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 10 $7 −$7 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $10 1h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 2h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $5 6h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $7 18h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 18h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 20h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 23h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 23h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $21 23h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 23h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $10 23h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $2 26h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $5 28h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $5 28h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 29h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 29h
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 29h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 50¢ $10 29h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Wi BUY 15¢ $10 29h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5 BUY Over 69¢ $5 31h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 39¢ $5 31h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 74¢ $100 42h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 16¢ $7 42h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje $6 42h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 15¢ $20 42h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes $16 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes $16 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $48 2d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 55¢ $152 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.35 · official $55.49 · 181 history records