Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:02:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6656…afcd crypto 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized −$2 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%10W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$13
crypto 45% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-21.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -13.3% -21.6% 59% 53% -10.3%
≤30d 17 -13.3% -21.6% 59% 53% -10.3%
≤90d 17 -13.3% -21.6% 59% 53% -10.3%
all 17 -13.3% -21.6% 59% 53% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.6% 53% -10.3%
10% -29.1% 41% -18.9%
15% -35.9% 41% -26.7%
20% -42.2% 29% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.97 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses10 / 7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Yes 48¢ 80¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+68%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Up 4¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 14 $10 −$7 -64%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $26 +$14 +55%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $20 +$14 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -94%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +47%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? Jun 13 $20 +$10 +48%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 16¢ $21 8h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $41 18h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? SELL Yes 99¢ $34 18h
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? BUY Yes 58¢ $20 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Down 63¢ $6 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Up 80¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $8 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 62¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 18¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 4¢ $5 21h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 22h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? SELL Yes 24¢ $10 22h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? SELL Yes 28¢ $30 25h
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 2 Switzerland? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 28h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $26 43h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.77 · official $16.77 (match) · 36 history records