Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:01:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6656…75b5 crypto 84 markets active 13d ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$9 (-4%) realized −$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate38%32W / 52L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day19.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$11
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-27.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 84 -19.4% -27.1% 38% 25% -17.2%
≤90d 84 -19.4% -27.1% 38% 25% -17.2%
all 84 -19.4% -27.1% 38% 25% -17.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.1% 25% -17.2%
10% -34.1% 24% -25.1%
15% -40.5% 18% -32.4%
20% -46.3% 15% -39.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses32 / 52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)84 / 84
History coverage9d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day19.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 84 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $3 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$4 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 16 $6 −$4 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $6 +$15 +236%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 +$9 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$6 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $4 +$3 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$11 +354%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 14 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$8 +379%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 10 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 10 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 10 $3 −$2 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 10 $1 +$1 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 10 $3 +$1 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 6¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 28¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 34¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET BUY Up 21¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 4¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 20¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 86¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 13¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 2¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 27¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $2 12d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $1 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 271 history records