Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T06:42:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6651…b8c8 politics 140 markets active 1h ago coverage 125d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$57 (-0%) realized −$57 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate6%8W / 131L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$13
politics 32% −$11
sports 10% −$32
tech 4% −$1
economics 3% −$1
crypto 3% −$1
world 2% $0
culture 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 16 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 109 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.6%
all 139 -2.8% -12.0% 6% 3% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 3% -9.7%
10% -20.4% 2% -18.4%
15% -28.1% 1% -26.2%
20% -35.2% 1% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 69% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -5% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×5.11 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

125d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$57
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)6%
Wins / losses8 / 131
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)139 / 140
History coverage125d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 139 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $16 $16 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 14 $26 $0 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $319 $0 -0%
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 27 $157 $0 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 26 $142 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 25 $160 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 24 $167 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $291 $0 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $121 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 22 $135 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $365 −$1 -0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $159 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $163 $0 -0%
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e May 19 $319 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 19 $452 −$1 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 19 $655 −$1 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $290 $0 -0%
Will Luis Gilberto Murillo win the 2026 Colombian presidential electio May 15 $298 $0 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 14 $165 $0 -0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $135 $0 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? May 12 $294 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 10 $131 $0 -0%
Will Armenia win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $462 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $278 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $155 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 05 $447 $0 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 04 $163 $0 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 04 $148 $0 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 03 $145 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $132 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 02 $119 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 02 $295 $0 -0%
Will Cho Kuk win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 01 $283 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 01 $139 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 30 $118 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 30 $148 $0 -0%
Will Park Hong-keun win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 29 $167 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 29 $166 $0 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $140 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 27 $156 $0 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 27 $162 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $341 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 26 $152 $0 -0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Eleni Kounalakis win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 24 $124 $0 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 24 $289 $0 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 21 $270 $0 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 21 $122 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $165 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 20 $127 $0 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 20 $635 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of BUY No 100¢ $16 1h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $26 14h
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $26 19h
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $163 17d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $163 18d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $157 18d
Will Josh Hawley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $157 19d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $142 19d
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $142 20d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? SELL No 100¢ $160 20d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $160 20d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $167 21d
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $167 22d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $134 22d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $134 23d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $121 23d
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $121 23d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $135 23d
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $135 24d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $119 24d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $119 24d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $159 24d
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $159 25d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $163 25d
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $163 25d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e SELL No 100¢ $154 26d
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential e BUY No 100¢ $154 26d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $120 26d
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $120 26d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $167 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.99 · official $15.99 (match) · 445 history records