Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:16:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x6650…71b6 crypto 673 markets active 0h ago coverage 563d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6,296 (-3%) realized −$6,452 · open +$156
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate54%360W / 306L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$320per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$2,615now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$335
7 days+$285
14 days+$367
30 days+$996
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 27% −$2,215
crypto 23% −$3,002
world 14% −$1,514
politics 13% −$609
economics 7% +$23
tech 5% +$171
finance 5% +$693
sports 4% +$13
culture 1% +$74
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 40% +4.0%
≤30d 63 -9.6% -18.2% 65% 60% +3.6%
≤90d 115 -10.1% -18.6% 60% 44% -6.2%
all 666 -7.8% -16.6% 54% 37% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.6% 37% -12.3%
10% -24.6% 31% -20.7%
15% -31.8% 15% -28.3%
20% -38.5% 12% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
32% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early -2% → late -13% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$41 vs −$74 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

563d coverage
Net worth$2,615
Realized−$6,452
Unrealized+$156
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses360 / 306
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions7
Markets (closed)666 / 673
History coverage563d
Avg bet$320
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 666 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 80¢ 95¢ $1,200 $1,424 +$224 (+19%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 77¢ 78¢ $500 $510 +$10 (+2%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? No 68¢ 67¢ $306 $300 −$6 (-2%)
Ink FDV above $2B one day after launch? No 86¢ 84¢ $250 $245 −$5 (-2%)
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Yes 51¢ 60¢ $100 $119 +$19 (+19%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 33¢ 5¢ $100 $15 −$85 (-85%)
Meek Mill gets Y Combinator funding by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 97 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 16 $1,211 +$335 +28%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $150 +$9 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 13 $400 −$88 -22%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $89 +$79 +89%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $52 −$50 -97%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 08 $52 +$17 +33%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 06 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 06 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 06 $50 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 06 $50 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 06 $50 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 06 $50 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 06 $50 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 06 $50 +$20 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 06 $25 −$25 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on June 5? Jun 05 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 04 $38 +$12 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 04 $38 +$12 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 04 $38 +$12 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 04 $38 +$12 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 04 $38 +$12 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 04 $34 +$16 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 03 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 03 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 03 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 03 $19 −$19 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $103 +$157 +153%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $300 +$75 +25%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? Jun 01 $250 +$162 +65%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 31 $150 +$37 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 28 $56 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET May 28 $56 +$14 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET May 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 28 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET May 28 $173 +$15 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 28 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET May 28 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET May 28 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 28 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 28 $80 +$20 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET May 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET May 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET May 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET May 25 $88 +$12 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $101 14m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $1,546 38h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $0 43h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $2 43h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $3 44h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $13 45h
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? BUY No 68¢ $287 45h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY No 33¢ $100 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 44¢ $312 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? BUY No 52¢ $89 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? BUY No 15¢ $52 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $500 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? SELL No 61¢ $69 9d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $150 9d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 29¢ $51 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $8 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $6 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $7 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $6 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $2 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 11d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $3 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,615.30 · official $2,616.96 (match) · 2904 history records