Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x664d…babd other 26 markets active 1h ago coverage 737d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$258 (-10%) realized −$117 · open −$141
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%6W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$104per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$1,129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$101
7 days+$37
14 days+$37
30 days+$37
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% −$228
sports 42% −$72
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 50% -6.4%
≤30d 8 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 50% -6.4%
≤90d 8 +1.4% -8.3% 50% 50% -6.4%
all 17 -7.3% -16.1% 35% 35% -19.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 35% -19.8%
10% -24.1% 35% -27.4%
15% -31.5% 35% -34.4%
20% -38.2% 29% -40.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$75 · ×1.31 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.79 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

737d coverage
Net worth$1,129
Realized−$117
Unrealized−$141
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions9
Markets (closed)17 / 26
History coverage737d
Avg bet$104
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 50¢ $400 $355 −$45 (-11%)
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Yes 56¢ 56¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 48¢ $200 $188 −$12 (-6%)
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 21¢ 21¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? No 37¢ 36¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 28¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $53 +$3 (+7%)
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $20 −$80 (-80%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $16 −$4 (-18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $182 +$301 +165%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $203 −$200 -99%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $101 +$58 +57%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $203 +$161 +79%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Jun 13 $120 −$118 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $51 +$56 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $121 −$120 -99%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 05 $207 −$207 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) Nov 02 $20 +$7 +37%
Will Boston Celtics 2023-24 NBA Champions? Jun 14 $5 −$4 -86%
Will Croatia win the 2024 Euros? Jun 14 $7 $0 +0%
Will England win the 2024 Euros? Jun 14 $28 $0 -1%
Will France win the 2024 Euros? Jun 14 $30 −$3 -8%
Will Serbia win the 2024 Euros? Jun 14 $1 $0 -30%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Jun 14 $20 $0 -2%
zkSync airdrop by June 30? Jun 14 $20 +$11 +56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $203 1h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $182 13h
Will Algeria win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 27h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 29¢ $102 27h
Will Ivory Coast win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 21¢ $102 27h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $202 27h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $203 27h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 40h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 54¢ $101 40h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 37¢ $102 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $203 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $21 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $51 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $51 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $152 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 63¢ $101 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $102 2d
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) BUY Scotland 39¢ $120 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 47¢ $51 4d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 63¢ $121 5d
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) BUY KT Rolster 38¢ $207 223d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) SELL T1 100¢ $27 226d
LoL: T1 vs Top Esports (BO5) BUY T1 73¢ $20 226d
Will Boston Celtics 2023-24 NBA Champions? SELL No $1 732d
Will Croatia win the 2024 Euros? SELL Yes $7 732d
Will England win the 2024 Euros? SELL No 79¢ $27 732d
Will France win the 2024 Euros? SELL Yes 18¢ $27 732d
Will Serbia win the 2024 Euros? SELL Yes $1 732d
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 55¢ $20 732d
zkSync airdrop by June 30? SELL Yes 98¢ $31 732d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,128.53 · official $1,128.57 (match) · 44 history records