Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T00:14:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x664c…d6b0 other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 421d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$323 (+22%) realized +$434 · open −$111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate17%8W / 39L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit51%portable
Net worth$50now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$163
7 days+$726
14 days+$726
30 days+$726
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$566
world 28% −$277
sports 14% +$1,035
crypto 7% −$43
tech 1% −$10
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-11.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +74.3% +57.7% 27% 27% +90.0%
≤30d 15 +74.3% +57.7% 27% 27% +90.0%
≤90d 15 +74.3% +57.7% 27% 27% +90.0%
all 47 -1.7% -11.0% 17% 13% +7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.0% 13% +7.8%
10% -19.5% 11% -2.5%
15% -27.3% 11% -12.0%
20% -34.4% 11% -20.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 73% · top 2 89% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +110% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +19% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -42% → late +37% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$146 vs −$23 · ×6.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.27 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

421d coverage
Net worth$50
Realized+$434
Unrealized−$111
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses8 / 39
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)47 / 49
History coverage421d
Avg bet$30
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit51%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $111 $2 −$109 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $133 −$125 -94%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $53 −$50 -94%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $49 +$42 +86%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 −$4 -7%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $53 +$51 +97%
Will the State of the Union address be delayed? Jun 14 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-25? Jun 14 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $53 +$178 +334%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $53 +$857 +1604%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Mar 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Feb 25 $26 −$2 -6%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 9, 2026? Feb 14 $11 −$11 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Feb 14 $140 −$140 -100%
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 30 and 31 million Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? Feb 14 $109 −$109 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Feb 14 $155 −$155 -100%
Will MrBeast's celebrity challenge video get between 32 and 33 million Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the next pop be elected in 7 or more days? Feb 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Jensen Huang say "Million" or "Billion" or "Trillion" 20+ times d Feb 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 9, 2026? Feb 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Maduro mugshot released by January 9? Feb 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Peter Turkson be the next pope? Feb 14 $15 −$15 -100%
US x Iran meeting by February 13, 2026? Feb 14 $10 +$38 +376%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 14 $39 −$5 -12%
Will the US next strike Iran on February 24, 2026 (ET)? Feb 14 $7 −$3 -44%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in February? Feb 14 $41 −$32 -77%
Israel nuclear weapon use against Iran by January 31? Jan 15 $1 $0 -38%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by January 31, 2026? Jan 15 $1 $0 -23%
Body-cam footage of Maduro capture released by Jan 31? Jan 15 $1 $0 -0%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 15 $2 −$1 -27%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 15 $2 $0 +21%
Maduro mugshot released by January 16? Jan 13 $5 −$2 -50%
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by January 31, 2026? Jan 13 $5 −$2 -35%
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? Jan 12 $31 −$8 -26%
Will the U.S. test a nuclear weapon by March 31 2026? Jan 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ole Gunnar Solskjær be appointed as manager of Manchester United? Jan 12 $5 −$4 -89%
Will Perplexity’s market cap be between $20B and $30B at market close Jan 12 $5 −$2 -45%
ICE Shooter fired/resigns by March 31? Jan 09 $1 $0 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by March 31? Jan 09 $1 $0 -10%
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by June 30? Jan 09 $5 $0 -5%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? Jan 09 $5 $0 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $28 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 3¢ $26 1h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $53 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 29h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 29h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $53 30h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 18¢ $53 40h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $53 40h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 51¢ $49 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $30 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 48¢ $49 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 46¢ $53 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 99¢ $231 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $53 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 21¢ $53 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $53 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $53 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $53 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $911 3d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 5¢ $53 3d
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $1 55d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 99d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 110d
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 110d
Will Galatasaray SK win on 2026-02-25? BUY Yes 6¢ $20 111d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $24 111d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 111d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.70 · official $49.70 (match) · 168 history records