Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:08:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x664b…5fb6 world 50 markets active 1h ago coverage 278d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate42%21W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% +$3
other 24% −$6
politics 21% $0
economics 9% $0
sports 7% $0
crypto 5% $0
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +2.4% -7.4% 38% 12% -8.8%
≤30d 12 +1.5% -8.2% 33% 8% -9.2%
≤90d 16 +1.7% -8.0% 44% 6% -8.8%
all 50 -0.3% -9.8% 42% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 2% -9.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 58% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

278d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses21 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)50 / 50
History coverage278d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 50 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $52 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $52 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $5 $0 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 20 $11 +$2 +14%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 19 $12 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $50 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? Jun 02 $33 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $20 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $50 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $4 $0 +2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 22 $7 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 21 $33 +$1 +4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 20 $19 +$1 +4%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Joe Exotic "The Tiger King" in 2025? Oct 11 $9 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $49 $0 +0%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Oct 11 $22 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 11 $9 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $9 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Inter win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 07 $9 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 06 $9 $0 +1%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Oct 05 $12 −$6 -46%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 04 $14 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 01 $14 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 30 $14 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Sumy by December 31? Sep 30 $9 $0 +0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $14 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 27 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 26 $20 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Sep 26 $31 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in 2025? Sep 26 $21 $0 +0%
US x Venezuela military engagement by September 30? Sep 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Sacramento Kings win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 24 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 World Series? Sep 24 $25 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 23 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $25 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $135K in September? Sep 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 21 $24 $0 +0%
Will People's Party for Freedom and Democracy win the most seats in th Sep 21 $26 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Daniel Penny in 2025? Sep 21 $4 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $40 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 52¢ $12 1h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $52 6h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $52 46h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $52 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $3 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $11 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $11 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 16¢ $12 2d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $11 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 92¢ $12 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $7 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 93¢ $6 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 46¢ $33 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 46¢ $33 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $50 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $50 5d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $20 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $20 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $11 27d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $11 27d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $35 29d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $15 29d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $50 29d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 30d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY Yes 5¢ $4 30d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $1 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 142 history records