Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T15:04:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

66
0x6645…9ebc
crypto · 29 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$454 -7%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$426 · open −$17
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ Small sample
Net worth$2,233
Realized−$426
Unrealized−$17
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses8 / 13
Est. fees paid−$58
Open positions8
Markets (closed)21 / 29
History coverage58d
Avg bet$235
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 8 History 21 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$346
7 days+$346
14 days−$300
30 days−$350
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Yes 59¢ 58¢ $500 $496 −$4 (-1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $400 $399 −$1 (-0%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $300 $299 −$1 (-0%)
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $300 $298 −$2 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Over 44¢ 44¢ $300 $297 −$3 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 46¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Brazil 32¢ 32¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-2%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? Yes 26¢ $104 $0 −$104 (-100%)
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score No 42¢ $168 $0 −$168 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC? Yes 10¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Down 39¢ $64 $0 −$64 (-100%)
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 2 Arsenal FC? Yes 18¢ $72 $0 −$72 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $205 −$21 -10%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $204 −$16 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 13 $316 −$254 -80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 13 $207 +$193 +93%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1,057 +$444 +42%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 2 Arsenal FC? May 30 $72 −$72 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $171 −$168 -98%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 1 Arsenal FC? May 30 $104 −$104 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC end in a draw? May 30 $95 −$19 -20%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $509 −$283 -56%
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 2 - 0 Arsenal FC? May 30 $51 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Apr 17 $67 −$64 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Apr 17 $52 +$17 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Apr 17 $194 −$139 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Apr 16 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 16 $78 +$78 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 16 $57 +$21 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Apr 16 $47 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Apr 16 $25 +$22 +89%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April? Apr 16 $20 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Apr 16 $30 +$29 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 42% +$229
other 42% −$536
crypto 17% −$136
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $308 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $410 1h
Brazil to score first vs. Morocco? BUY Yes 63¢ $303 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $203 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $305 1h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Brazil 32¢ $204 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 46¢ $96 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $291 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 17¢ $184 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $188 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 43¢ $192 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $291 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Up $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 20¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $308 1h
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $307 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $102 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Morocco? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $203 1h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $204 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 1h
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 99¢ $1,154 13d
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $349 13d
Exact Score: Paris Saint-Germain FC 0 - 2 Arsenal FC? BUY Yes 18¢ $4 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-24.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +7.4% -2.8% 40% 40% +6.2%
≤30d 11 -39.9% -45.6% 18% 18% -20.1%
≤90d 21 -16.1% -24.0% 38% 38% -20.2%
all 21 -16.1% -24.0% 38% 38% -20.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.0% 38% -20.2%
10% -31.3% 38% -27.8%
15% -38.0% 29% -34.8%
20% -44.0% 19% -41.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,232.60 · official $2,232.60 (match) · 73 history records