Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:25:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

66 0x6644…8ed1 other 11 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover

Total PnL +$534 (+43%) realized +$534 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip

Net edge-4%after slip

Net WR36%break-even

Win rate36%4W / 7L

Drawdown48%max

Avg bet$113per market

Trades / day10.6pace

Fees−$5est.

Kalshi-fit9%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +36%

net ROI/market (all)+3.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	11	+14.4%	+3.5%	36%	36%	+36.5%
≤30d	11	+14.4%	+3.5%	36%	36%	+36.5%
≤90d	11	+14.4%	+3.5%	36%	36%	+36.5%
all	11	+14.4%	+3.5%	36%	36%	+36.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover10.6 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+3.5%	36%	+36.5%
10%	-6.4%	36%	+23.4%
15%	-15.4%	36%	+11.5%
20%	-23.7%	27%	+0.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 44% · top 2 84% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +51% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +14% · $-wt +51% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$234 vs −$44 · ×5.39 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×3.08 per $1 lost it wins $3.08

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$534

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)36%

Wins / losses4 / 7

Est. fees paid−$5

Open positions0

Markets (closed)11 / 11

History coverage1d

Avg bet$113

Trades / day10.6

Drawdown48%

Kalshi-fit9%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 11 Trades

no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	Jun 23	$355	+$380	+107%
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$302	−$235	-78%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-97%
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana?	Jun 23	$21	−$20	-98%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana?	Jun 23	$10	−$10	-97%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$305	+$409	+134%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	Jun 22	$10	+$56	+550%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 22	$202	+$92	+46%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	SELL Yes	19¢	$67	1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	50¢	$304	1h
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw?	BUY Yes	37¢	$51	2h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	6h
Exact Score: Portugal 1 - 1 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	5¢	$10	6h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 Uzbekistan?	BUY Yes	3¢	$10	6h
Will England win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	83¢	$302	6h
Exact Score: England 3 - 0 Ghana?	BUY Yes	14¢	$21	6h
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Ghana?	BUY Yes	16¢	$10	6h
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Ghana?	BUY Yes	11¢	$10	6h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$305	25h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Austria?	BUY Yes	15¢	$10	30h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	68¢	$202	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 17 history records