Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T14:24:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6643…0804 world 30 markets active 2h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$4 (+1%) realized +$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate43%13W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 55% −$5
other 26% +$1
politics 8% $0
finance 5% +$8
sports 4% $0
economics 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.8% -8.8% 14% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 9 +0.7% -8.9% 22% 0% -9.3%
≤90d 14 +1.3% -8.3% 29% 7% -8.8%
all 30 +0.9% -8.7% 43% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.7% 3% -8.8%
10% -17.4% 3% -17.6%
15% -25.4% 0% -25.5%
20% -32.7% 0% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.56 per $1 lost it wins $1.56
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses13 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)30 / 30
History coverage466d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 30 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 25 $32 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 25 $6 $0 +6%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $3 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $31 $0 -0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 24 $35 $0 +0%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $35 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $32 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 26 $46 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $27 +$8 +30%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $24 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 23 $29 −$5 -19%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 22 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Will Steven Fulop win the 2025 Democratic Primary for governor of New Jun 10 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Nicolás Maduro be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will 'Jurassic World: Rebirth' have the best domestic opening weekend Jun 07 $11 $0 +0%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 French Open? Jun 05 $11 $0 -3%
Will Kim Moon-soo be elected the next president of South Korea? Jun 04 $11 $0 +3%
Will Solana dip to $80 in May? Jun 03 $1 $0 +1%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will Real Madrid win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 18 $10 $0 +4%
Will Victor Ponta win the most votes in the 1st round of the Romanian Apr 16 $11 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 425-449 times March 21-28? Mar 30 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Mar 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 14-21? Mar 20 $11 $0 +4%
Arsenal wins the Premier League? Mar 17 $12 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 87¢ $32 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $32 4h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $7 9h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $0 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $6 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $25 25h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $28 28h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $3 28h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $35 37h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $35 39h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL No 68¢ $35 45h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $35 47h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $24 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $8 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $32 2d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $10 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $8 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY Yes 13¢ $3 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $5 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $27 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $5 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $27 29d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 80¢ $35 30d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 80¢ $35 30d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 31d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 78 history records