Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T14:00:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

66
0x6641…55d0
weather · 1332 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$559 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$566 · open +$7
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$708
Realized−$566
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses979 / 399
Open positions54
Markets (closed)1378 / 1332
History coverage33d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day72.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 54 History 1378 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$286
7 days−$260
14 days−$255
30 days−$354
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 25°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 12? No 95¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+5%)
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 35°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? No 96¢ 100¢ $14 $15 +$1 (+4%)
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 28°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 31°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 36°C or higher on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? No 97¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 22°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 33°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 30°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 28°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 34°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 35°C or higher on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? No 98¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 18°C or higher on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 100°F or higher on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 17°C on May 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Lagos be 30°C on May 11? Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on May 10? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 10? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on May 10? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 10? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on May 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on May 9? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on May 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 20°C on May 10? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on May 10? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Miami be between 88-89°F on May 9? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 13°C on May 10? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 10? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 82-83°F on May 10? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 68-69°F on May 9? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on May 10? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 34°C on May 10? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C or higher on May 9? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 26°C on May 10? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 68-69°F on Ma Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 12°C on May 10? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on May 11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 10? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 84-85°F on May 10? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 29°C on May 10? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 11? Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 20°C on May 10? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 27°C on May 10? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on May 10? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 80-81°F on May 11? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 24°C on May 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on May 10? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 76-77°F on Ma Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on May 11? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 64°F or higher on May 10? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 10? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on May 10? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 10? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on May 11? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 68-69°F on May Jun 12 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 24°C on May 10? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 11? Jun 12 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 23°C on May 10? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$242
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $5 1m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June BUY No 98¢ $5 7m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 7m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $1 7m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $5 7m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June BUY No 98¢ $5 12m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $5 12m
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 19°C or higher on June BUY No 98¢ $5 18m
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 86-87°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 35m
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? BUY No 94¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 98¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 88-89°F on Ju BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 86-87°F on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 91¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? BUY No 93¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 76-77°F on June 12? BUY No 96¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-18.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 498 -19.3% -27.0% 77% 6% -15.0%
≤30d 1002 -9.1% -17.7% 81% 13% -13.8%
≤90d 1378 -10.3% -18.9% 71% 21% -15.4%
all 1378 -10.3% -18.9% 71% 21% -15.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover72.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.9% 21% -15.4%
10% ← realistic here -26.6% 14% -23.5%
15% -33.7% 7% -30.9%
20% -40.2% 4% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $707.78 · official $706.83 (match) · 3500 history records