Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T18:25:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6640…2ffe crypto 818 markets active 1h ago coverage 259d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4,050 (-3%) realized −$4,079 · open +$29
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate76%620W / 195L
Whale WR70%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$146per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$323est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$294now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$61
14 days−$380
30 days−$715
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 32% −$1,396
crypto 30% −$727
other 20% −$1,262
politics 6% +$73
world 4% −$88
finance 3% −$680
economics 2% +$12
tech 1% −$43
weather 1% +$5
culture 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -21.6% -29.0% 27% 0% -12.4%
≤30d 94 -8.9% -17.5% 54% 3% -12.1%
≤90d 323 -5.2% -14.2% 71% 8% -12.0%
all 815 -4.2% -13.3% 76% 19% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 19% -12.7%
10% -21.6% 8% -21.0%
15% -29.2% 4% -28.7%
20% -36.1% 2% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 70% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$46 · ×0.15 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

259d coverage
Net worth$294
Realized−$4,079
Unrealized+$29
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses620 / 195
Whale WR (big bets)70%
Est. fees paid−$323
Open positions1
Markets (closed)815 / 818
History coverage259d
Avg bet$146
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 815 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 Over 90¢ 100¢ $265 $294 +$29 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trinity Tatum win Love Island USA Season 8? Jun 29 $3 $0 -8%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $6 −$1 -12%
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $151 $0 -0%
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 27 $90 −$10 -11%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $469 −$46 -10%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $1 −$1 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $66 on June 26? Jun 27 $0 $0 -100%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $144 +$11 +7%
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $97 +$2 +2%
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026? Jun 26 $4 $0 +4%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 Jun 26 $141 +$9 +6%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 25 $256 −$6 -2%
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? Jun 25 $81 −$11 -13%
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $42B? Jun 25 $65 −$10 -15%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $151 $0 +0%
Will Catherine West be in the Burnham cabinet? Jun 24 $55 −$1 -2%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June? Jun 23 $31 −$2 -5%
GPT-5.6 released by July 24, 2026? Jun 23 $5 $0 -7%
Will Starmer officially leave office by July 17? Jun 23 $12 −$2 -15%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $137 +$8 +6%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $307 +$3 +1%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $100 $0 +0%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $96 +$4 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $294 −$294 -100%
Will UK annual inflation be between 2.5% and 2.7% in June? Jun 20 $5 $0 +2%
Will Jack Grealish join Everton? Jun 19 $20 −$4 -20%
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru Jun 19 $36 −$4 -12%
Will the announcers say "Nutmeg / Meg" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabi Jun 18 $35 −$10 -28%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Spain vs Saudi Arabia FIF Jun 18 $40 −$2 -5%
Will Phil Lyman be the Republican nominee for UT-03? Jun 17 $45 −$1 -2%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 17 $44 $0 -1%
Will Oman sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? Jun 17 $38 −$11 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $294 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $232 +$18 +8%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $285 +$6 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $347 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $139 +$8 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $828 −$7 -1%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $342 +$5 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $264 +$3 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $464 +$2 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 14 $92 $0 +0%
Will Memphis Depay be in Netherlands's Starting 11? Jun 14 $5 $0 -7%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $78 +$1 +2%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $200 −$42 -21%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $333 −$11 -3%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Qatar Jun 13 $7 +$2 +30%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 13 $329 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $54 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $212 1h
Will Trinity Tatum win Love Island USA Season 8? SELL Yes 79¢ $3 8h
Will Trinity Tatum win Love Island USA Season 8? BUY Yes 85¢ $3 8h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 45h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $6 45h
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 97¢ $101 45h
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 97¢ $49 45h
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 97¢ $1 45h
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $151 45h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 80¢ $80 47h
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 2d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 12¢ $90 2d
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $144 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $66 on June 26? BUY No $0 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $66 on June 26? BUY No $0 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $66 on June 26? BUY No $0 2d
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $66 on June 26? BUY No $0 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 99¢ $99 2d
Norway vs. France: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 97¢ $97 2d
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $4 2d
Carles Puigdemont back in Spain in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $4 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $5 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 97¢ $146 3d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 91¢ $141 3d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $85 3d
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $90 3d
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? SELL Yes 71¢ $70 3d
GPT-5.6 released by July 17, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $81 3d
Will Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q2 revenue (USD) be above $42B? SELL No 69¢ $55 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $293.93 · official $293.93 (match) · 3211 history records