Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:40:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x663f…c127 weather 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 42d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$14 (-13%) realized −$13 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate45%14W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$12
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 87% −$11
world 5% −$4
other 3% +$1
politics 3% −$3
finance 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +3.2% -6.6% 52% 48% -23.2%
≤30d 25 +21.9% +10.3% 56% 52% -17.2%
≤90d 31 +0.2% -9.4% 45% 42% -25.0%
all 31 +0.2% -9.4% 45% 42% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 42% -25.0%
10% -18.0% 32% -32.2%
15% -26.0% 23% -38.7%
20% -33.2% 19% -44.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.75 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

42d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses14 / 17
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage42d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? Yes 31¢ 26¢ $6 $5 −$1 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $2 +$8 +306%
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $6 −$5 -81%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? Jun 16 $8 −$7 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? Jun 15 $6 −$5 -84%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? Jun 15 $4 +$4 +84%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 +$2 +30%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $5 −$1 -24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? Jun 13 $8 −$7 -85%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -99%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +55%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 +$2 +119%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +24%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 +$1 +19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -22%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 +$1 +33%
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 10? Jun 10 $2 $0 -6%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 +$5 +516%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 9? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? Jun 08 $1 $0 +43%
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? May 22 $1 $0 +22%
Will Russia capture Riasne by May 31? May 09 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on May 7? May 08 $3 −$1 -42%
Will the Green Party win the second-most council seat elections in the May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in May? May 06 $1 −$1 -98%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2027? May 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the Green Party win at least 600 council seat elections in the 20 May 06 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 10m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 13m
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $0 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 17? BUY Yes 34¢ $2 12h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 21h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 16? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 25h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 9¢ $1 26h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 37h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 37h
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $2 37h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? SELL Yes 5¢ $1 39h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 25¢ $3 41h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? SELL Yes 53¢ $8 42h
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 15? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 28¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? SELL Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? SELL Yes 19¢ $4 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY Yes 38¢ $8 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 14? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 13? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 3d
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on June 13? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.20 · official $5.30 (match) · 86 history records