Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:50:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x6639…25cb crypto 15 markets active 1h ago coverage 615d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2,654 (-19%) realized −$2,654 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate92%12W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$922per market
Trades / day0.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2,555now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 72% −$2,657
crypto 28% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 13 -1.8% -11.1% 92% 0% -30.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 0% -30.8%
10% -19.6% 0% -37.4%
15% -27.4% 0% -43.5%
20% -34.5% 0% -49.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 63% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2,657 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

615d coverage
Net worth$2,555
Realized−$2,654
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses12 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)13 / 15
History coverage615d
Avg bet$922
Trades / day0.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 13 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,517 $1,518 +$1 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $1,038 $1,037 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 04 $37 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? Jun 04 $59 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? Jun 04 $87 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? Jun 04 $140 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? May 20 $14 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? May 20 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? May 20 $49 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? May 20 $64 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? May 20 $66 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? May 20 $101 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? Apr 04 $586 +$2 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 28 $10,018 −$2,657 -26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,038 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,517 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in May? BUY No 100¢ $87 393d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $140 393d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $59 393d
Will Solana reach $300 in May? BUY No 99¢ $37 393d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? BUY No 100¢ $10 393d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in April? BUY No 100¢ $101 430d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in April? BUY No 100¢ $64 430d
Will Ethereum reach $5000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $39 430d
Will Ethereum reach $6000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $49 430d
Will Ethereum reach $4000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $14 430d
Will Ethereum reach $8000 in April? BUY No 100¢ $66 430d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $432 469d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $73 469d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $44 469d
Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by March 31? BUY No 100¢ $37 469d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? SELL Yes 34¢ $7,361 597d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 46¢ $10,018 614d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,554.87 · official $2,554.87 (match) · 31 history records