Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T04:40:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6638…117d other 38 markets active 2h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$538 (-3%) realized −$541 · open +$3
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate69%25W / 11L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$410per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$79now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$48
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 23% +$242
economics 19% −$528
other 16% +$53
crypto 16% −$41
sports 9% −$344
world 9% +$30
finance 6% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-2.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 -12.7% -21.0% 67% 67% -7.0%
≤90d 18 +28.8% +16.5% 56% 44% -25.0%
all 36 +7.7% -2.6% 69% 22% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.6% 22% -12.7%
10% -11.9% 17% -21.1%
15% -20.4% 14% -28.7%
20% -28.2% 8% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
68% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$927) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -13% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$137 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.64 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$79
Realized−$541
Unrealized+$3
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses25 / 11
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)36 / 38
History coverage240d
Avg bet$410
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $65 $64 −$1 (-1%)
US recession by end of 2026? No 70¢ 90¢ $11 $15 +$3 (+28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $57 +$23 +40%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $112 +$25 +22%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 04 $42 −$42 -99%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 25 $64 −$63 -98%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $11 +$1 +11%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 18 $106 −$104 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 14 $83 −$82 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $173 −$171 -99%
Bruins vs. Sabres Apr 28 $111 −$110 -99%
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs 9INE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe C Apr 24 $2 +$16 +1011%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-21? Apr 21 $124 −$122 -99%
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? Apr 21 $133 +$97 +73%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $95 in April? Apr 16 $25 +$5 +19%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-14? Apr 16 $157 +$130 +83%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 12 $98 −$98 -100%
Will Arizona win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Apr 09 $115 +$55 +48%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Apr 04 $11 +$1 +6%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of March? Apr 04 $927 +$39 +4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 18 $913 +$44 +5%
Starmer out by February 28, 2026? Mar 07 $849 +$69 +8%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Feb 11 $832 +$17 +2%
No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? Jan 20 $645 −$645 -100%
Will Khamenei leave Iran by Friday? Jan 15 $1,448 +$30 +2%
Will Trump sell 1-100 Gold Cards in 2025? Jan 07 $1,288 +$75 +6%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 24 $44 −$44 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 20 $224 +$1 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 20 $1,097 +$95 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in November? Dec 05 $1,275 +$46 +4%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 20 $1,185 +$89 +8%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 10 $1,108 +$77 +7%
Will Ethereum dip to $3400 in October? Nov 03 $1,097 +$11 +1%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 01 $30 −$30 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end October 27-30? Nov 01 $29 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? Oct 31 $30 +$1 +3%
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $38 $0 +1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after October 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $1,011 +$17 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $66 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $57 10d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 81¢ $112 15d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $42 21d
Knicks vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 44¢ $64 31d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 58¢ $106 38d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 42¢ $83 43d
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? BUY Yes 61¢ $173 50d
Bruins vs. Sabres BUY Sabres 61¢ $111 59d
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs 9INE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe C BUY Dripmen $0 62d
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs 9INE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe C BUY Dripmen $0 62d
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs 9INE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe C BUY Dripmen $0 62d
Counter-Strike: Dripmen vs 9INE (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe C BUY Dripmen $0 62d
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC win on 2026-04-21? BUY No 61¢ $124 65d
Will Chelsea FC win on 2026-04-18? BUY No 57¢ $133 70d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes $21 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes $3 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes $4 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes $3 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes $1 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes $2 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes $4 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes $3 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes $0 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes $3 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes $3 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes $3 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes $4 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes $3 74d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? BUY Yes $6 74d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.56 · official $78.56 (match) · 101 history records