Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T23:13:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

66
0x6636…5760
other · 72 markets active 1h ago
1.5score
−$17 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$18 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses18 / 50
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)68 / 72
History coverage220d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 3 History 68 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$26
7 days+$13
14 days+$13
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 11¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+27%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Will Bybit be accused of insider trading? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Nuggets Nuggets 53¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Tether be accused of insider trading? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Yes 14¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Suns vs. Kings Kings 29¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will Helius be accused of insider trading? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Addison Rae win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Jupiter be accused of insider trading? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Base be accused of insider trading? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Wintermute be accused of insider trading? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the Government shutdown end November 8-11? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Jito be accused of insider trading? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Lola Young win Best New Artist at the 68th Annual GRAMMY Awards? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will Cirie Fields win Survivor Season 50? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Dexscreener be accused of insider trading? Yes 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Warriors vs. Thunder Warriors 16¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Binance be accused of insider trading? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will World Liberty Financial be accused of insider trading? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $5 −$3 -54%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $50 −$23 -46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $99 +$40 +40%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $5 $0 -9%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $5 $0 -5%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $5 $0 -1%
Will Joe Hunter win Survivor Season 50? May 18 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Rizo Velovic win Survivor Season 50? May 18 $1 −$1 -57%
Will Jonathan Young win Survivor Season 50? May 18 $1 $0 -38%
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? May 18 $5 −$4 -71%
Will Rick Devens win Survivor Season 50? May 07 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Ozzy Lusth win Survivor Season 50? May 07 $1 −$1 -70%
Will Cirie Fields win Survivor Season 50? May 07 $2 −$2 -96%
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? Apr 07 $5 −$4 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 06 $8 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Apr 06 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Apr 06 $2 +$3 +165%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 06 $9 $0 -4%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Apr 06 $10 +$1 +7%
US x Iran ceasefire by June 30? Apr 06 $20 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 26 $5 −$1 -17%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 25 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 20 to March 27, 2026? Mar 24 $5 −$1 -18%
Warriors vs. Pistons Mar 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from March 13 to March 20, 2026? Mar 20 $5 −$5 -92%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-03-18? Mar 18 $10 +$5 +54%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 17 $5 +$10 +202%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $5 +$54 +1076%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Mar 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will "Hamnet" win exactly 1 award at the Oscars? Mar 10 $1 $0 +25%
Warriors vs. Thunder Mar 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Knicks vs. Nuggets Mar 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Warriors vs. Rockets Mar 06 $1 +$4 +376%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 04 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Mar 04 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 04 $3 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Mar 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Suns vs. Kings Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Mar 03 $2 +$1 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Mar 03 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Mar 03 $1 +$2 +167%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Mar 03 $1 −$1 -88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Mar 03 $1 +$1 +107%
Will Wagner Moura win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Ethan Hawke win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Will MEXC be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Tether be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Helius be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jito be accused of insider trading? Feb 24 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 48% +$2
world 17% +$10
sports 14% −$23
politics 10% −$34
crypto 8% −$13
culture 4% +$41
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 3.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 BUY 45¢ $22 54m
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 59m
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL 10¢ $2 1h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY 20¢ $5 1h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 30¢ $27 27h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $50 28h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 99¢ $138 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $99 2d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 26d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 26d
Will Joe Hunter win Survivor Season 50? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 26d
Will Rizo Velovic win Survivor Season 50? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 26d
Will Jonathan Young win Survivor Season 50? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 26d
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? SELL No 5¢ $1 26d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 36d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 36d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 36d
Will Rick Devens win Survivor Season 50? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 37d
Will Ozzy Lusth win Survivor Season 50? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 37d
Will Ozzy Lusth win Survivor Season 50? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 37d
Will Rizo Velovic win Survivor Season 50? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 37d
Will Jonathan Young win Survivor Season 50? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 37d
Will Joe Hunter win Survivor Season 50? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 37d
Will Cirie Fields win Survivor Season 50? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 37d
Will Aubry Bracco win Survivor Season 50? BUY No 16¢ $5 37d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? SELL No 4¢ $1 67d
Trump announces Hormuz deadline extension today? BUY No 36¢ $5 67d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -12.6% -21.0% 17% 17% -2.6%
≤30d 10 -30.9% -37.4% 10% 10% -5.7%
≤90d 28 +13.4% +2.6% 25% 18% +6.0%
all 68 -17.7% -25.5% 26% 22% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 22% -13.1%
10% -32.7% 22% -21.4%
15% -39.2% 19% -29.0%
20% -45.1% 16% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.68 · official $27.35 · 155 history records