Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T12:49:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6636…6f29 crypto 376 markets active 11h ago coverage 64d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$318 (-4%) realized −$318 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate75%281W / 95L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$1
14 days−$19
30 days−$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 91% −$304
other 5% −$6
sports 3% −$59
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-12.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 79 -0.2% -9.7% 66% 52% -9.3%
≤30d 167 -6.1% -15.0% 61% 43% -15.8%
≤90d 376 -3.3% -12.5% 75% 23% -13.5%
all 376 -3.3% -12.5% 75% 23% -13.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.5% 23% -13.5%
10% -20.9% 18% -21.8%
15% -28.5% 15% -29.3%
20% -35.5% 14% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
64% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$10 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

64d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$318
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses281 / 95
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)376 / 376
History coverage64d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 376 Trades
no open positions (63 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics Jun 17 $2 −$2 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 +$8 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +34%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$10 +194%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 +$2 +124%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$6 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 $0 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$13 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$6 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 12 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 12 $5 −$5 -96%
Chicago Sky vs. Indiana Fever Jun 12 $2 $0 +24%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 11 $3 +$2 +67%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5 Jun 11 $3 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 11 $4 +$1 +12%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 10.5 Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$1 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Athletics BUY Athletics 58¢ $2 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $5 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 49¢ $5 31h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 38h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 91¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 87¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $5 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 70¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $5 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 743 history records