Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T19:53:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6635…ecb4 sports 60 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$791 (-45%) realized −$791 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate46%21W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$29per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$159
14 days−$769
30 days−$769
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% −$816
other 10% +$18
crypto 2% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-25.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -4.4% -13.5% 50% 50% -40.4%
≤30d 46 -17.9% -25.7% 46% 43% -54.3%
≤90d 46 -17.9% -25.7% 46% 43% -54.3%
all 46 -17.9% -25.7% 46% 43% -54.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.7% 43% -54.3%
10% -32.8% 41% -58.6%
15% -39.3% 39% -62.6%
20% -45.2% 35% -66.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -49% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -49% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -25% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$43 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$791
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses21 / 25
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions7
Markets (closed)46 / 60
History coverage13d
Avg bet$29
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 46 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 68¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+6%)
Will Australia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 56¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-12%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 87¢ 90¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 93¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 96¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 88¢ 80¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 24 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $51 +$26 +52%
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 29 $31 −$30 -98%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $11 −$11 -99%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND Jun 26 $8 +$2 +31%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $10 −$10 -99%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 Jun 25 $50 −$50 -99%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 25 $18 +$17 +92%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $20 +$15 +76%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 Jun 25 $5 +$2 +42%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $91 −$90 -99%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 Jun 25 $61 +$41 +67%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $92 −$91 -99%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AN Jun 24 $10 +$29 +279%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 22 $19 −$19 -99%
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) Jun 22 $20 −$1 -4%
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? Jun 22 $18 +$2 +8%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $77 −$76 -99%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $41 +$36 +90%
Spread: Spain (-5.5) Jun 21 $15 −$15 -98%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $152 −$150 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $41 +$30 +73%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $40 +$23 +57%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $40 −$40 -100%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $5 +$2 +48%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $30 +$21 +69%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $53 −$53 -99%
Spread: Brazil (-4.5) Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $160 −$158 -99%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $22 −$22 -98%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $15 +$23 +148%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $2 −$2 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $101 −$100 -99%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 12.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $102 −$100 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 4.5 Jun 19 $20 +$2 +11%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 19 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 +$4 +86%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $10 +$12 +114%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $10 +$7 +72%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $10 +$5 +52%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 25¢ $31 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 65¢ $51 1h
Vinícius Júnior: 1+ goals AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Brazil vs. Jap BUY 19¢ $6 1h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $11 2d
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 76¢ $8 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 25¢ $10 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Germany: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY 58¢ $10 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 51¢ $10 3d
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 75¢ $50 3d
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 64¢ $91 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $102 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 70¢ $5 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 61¢ $26 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 66¢ $66 4d
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 59¢ $61 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $18 4d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 4d
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 53¢ $19 7d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 58¢ $19 7d
Spread: Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 59¢ $20 7d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $77 8d
Spread: Spain (-5.5) BUY Spain 48¢ $15 8d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 52¢ $41 8d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $101 8d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 83¢ $40 8d
Starmer out by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 8d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $40 8d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 57¢ $41 8d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $51 9d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AN BUY 26¢ $10 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.72 · official $15.72 (match) · 88 history records