Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T23:33:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6632…5ac6 crypto 34 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$293 (-15%) realized −$310 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate42%14W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$56per market
Trades / day69.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$62now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$293
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -20.7% -28.2% 42% 42% -25.0%
≤30d 33 -20.7% -28.2% 42% 42% -25.0%
≤90d 33 -20.7% -28.2% 42% 42% -25.0%
all 33 -20.7% -28.2% 42% 42% -25.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.2% 42% -25.0%
10% ← realistic here -35.1% 42% -32.2%
15% -41.4% 42% -38.7%
20% -47.1% 39% -44.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -33% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$50 vs −$53 · ×0.94 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$62
Realized−$310
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses14 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)33 / 34
History coverage1d
Avg bet$56
Trades / day69.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 33 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 44¢ 62¢ $44 $62 +$18 (+40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 23 $52 −$49 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 23 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 23 $56 +$50 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 23 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 23 $159 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 23 $157 −$150 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 23 $57 +$73 +128%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 23 $51 +$21 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$57 +109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 23 $52 +$48 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 23 $50 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 23 $108 +$142 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 23 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 23 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 23 $158 +$97 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 23 $102 +$67 +66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 23 $42 −$40 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 23 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$16 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 +$9 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 23 $21 +$19 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 23 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 23 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 23 $85 −$85 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $4 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Down 41¢ $21 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $52 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET BUY Down 16¢ $53 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $4 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 20¢ $26 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 14¢ $26 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $53 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $53 36m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $52 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $52 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $53 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $52 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $5 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $52 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 69¢ $51 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $52 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 19¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $52 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.50 · official $62.50 (match) · 95 history records