Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T19:11:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6630…3b83 crypto 379 markets active 1h ago coverage 150d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$384 (+8%) realized +$385 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate40%149W / 225L
Drawdown94%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$32est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$59now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$52
7 days−$486
14 days−$50
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% +$186
sports 40% +$174
finance 1% −$51
other 1% −$35
politics 1% −$28
economics 1% +$1
world 0% −$1
weather 0% −$12
tech 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 101 -56.7% -60.9% 18% 18% -44.0%
≤30d 346 -13.6% -21.8% 35% 35% -12.0%
≤90d 366 -6.5% -15.4% 39% 38% -5.6%
all 374 -4.0% -13.1% 40% 39% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.1% 39% -5.1%
10% -21.4% 38% -14.2%
15% -29.0% 37% -22.5%
20% -36.0% 36% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$11 · ×1.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.09 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

150d coverage
Net worth$59
Realized+$385
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses149 / 225
Est. fees paid−$32
Open positions2
Markets (closed)374 / 379
History coverage150d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown94%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 374 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score Yes 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score No 56¢ 54¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 26 $11 +$48 +456%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 26 $10 +$15 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 26 $10 −$10 -96%
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 25 $51 +$33 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 25 $7 +$10 +152%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 25 $21 −$20 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 25 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 25 $10 +$17 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 24 $41 −$23 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -96%
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$9 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$10 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 24 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Jun 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Senegal vs. Iraq: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $30 1h
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 1.5 AND Norway vs. France: Both Teams BUY 36¢ $20 1h
Norway vs. France: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 17¢ $11 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $10 3h
Curaçao vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $51 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $11 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 32¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $7 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $10 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 13¢ $11 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 7¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $10 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $10 47h
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 24¢ $17 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $10 2d
Exact Score: Switzerland 0 - 0 Canada? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Switzerland vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 54¢ $41 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $19 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 35¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $58.67 · official $76.75 · 871 history records