Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:31:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x662c…8b14 crypto 396 markets active 0h ago coverage 153d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$427 (-12%) realized −$424 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -32% what you keep after slip
Net edge-32%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%192W / 201L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$9per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$122
7 days−$160
14 days−$160
30 days−$154
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$383
other 8% +$94
world 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-29.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 72 -54.3% -58.6% 28% 22% -25.4%
≤30d 82 -42.7% -48.2% 34% 28% -24.5%
≤90d 82 -42.7% -48.2% 34% 28% -24.5%
all 393 -22.0% -29.4% 49% 40% -16.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.4% 40% -16.7%
10% -36.1% 30% -24.6%
15% -42.3% 20% -31.9%
20% -48.0% 12% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -18% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -29% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

153d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$424
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses192 / 201
Open positions3
Markets (closed)393 / 396
History coverage153d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 393 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $250 +$119 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $11 −$7 -59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$2 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $41 −$8 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $21 −$17 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $61 −$13 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7PM ET Jun 14 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $41 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 14 $31 +$7 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 14 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$2 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 14 $6 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$1 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 11, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET SELL Down 87¢ $8 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 53¢ $5 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET SELL Up 73¢ $6 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $5 42m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 48m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $1 55m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET SELL Up 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET SELL Down 94¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $10 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $369 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $1 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 83¢ $40 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $100 3h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 4h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 19¢ $2 8h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $10 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $5 2d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $5 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $7 2d
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.75 · official $0.75 (match) · 1117 history records