Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T08:14:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x662b…df11 other 258 markets active 2h ago coverage 135d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$77 (-0%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%18W / 239L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day9.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$11
14 days−$17
30 days−$33
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 41% −$39
sports 26% −$26
politics 9% −$8
economics 7% −$7
culture 6% −$4
crypto 5% −$4
world 4% −$3
tech 2% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 67 -0.2% -9.7% 1% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 5% 0% -9.7%
all 257 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.14 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

135d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses18 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)257 / 258
History coverage135d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day9.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 257 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 98¢ $63 $63 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $307 −$1 -0%
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $133 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $417 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $266 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 14 $645 −$1 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $303 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $513 −$1 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $278 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $289 −$1 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $64 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 12 $584 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $343 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 12 $215 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $518 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 11 $333 $0 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $370 −$1 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 10 $66 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $311 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 09 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 09 $66 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 09 $626 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 09 $304 $0 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $388 −$1 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $283 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $67 $0 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $646 −$1 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 07 $300 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $161 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 04 $145 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $69 $0 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 03 $146 $0 -0%
Will Diosdado Cabello Rondón be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 02 $368 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 02 $85 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 02 $290 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 01 $448 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $266 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $579 $0 -0%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $71 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $312 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? May 29 $150 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 28 $124 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 28 $264 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $306 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $73 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $74 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 27 $446 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 27 $182 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $63 1h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $63 21h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $63 22h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $63 24h
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $63 26h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 99¢ $63 27h
Will Minnesota United FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 99¢ $63 28h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $63 30h
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $63 31h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $63 33h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 34h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 36h
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $64 37h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? SELL No 100¢ $64 42h
Xi Jinping out by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $64 44h
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? SELL No 98¢ $64 2d
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? BUY No 98¢ $64 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $64 2d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $64 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $64 2d
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $64 2d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $64 3d
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $64 3d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $64 3d
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 99¢ $64 3d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $64 3d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $65 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $65 3d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $65 3d
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $65 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $62.84 · official $62.84 (match) · 1375 history records