Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:06:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
66 0x6628…1430 other 3 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$47 (+3%) realized +$47 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%1W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$555per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit33%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 20d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 84% +$234
sports 16% −$172
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-16.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -7.7% -16.5% 33% 33% -6.2%
≤30d 3 -7.7% -16.5% 33% 33% -6.2%
≤90d 3 -7.7% -16.5% 33% 33% -6.2%
all 3 -7.7% -16.5% 33% 33% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.5% 33% -6.2%
10% -24.5% 33% -15.1%
15% -31.8% 33% -23.3%
20% -38.5% 0% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$252 vs −$95 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$47
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses1 / 2
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions0
Markets (closed)3 / 3
History coverage20d
Avg bet$555
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit33%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 3 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $591 +$252 +43%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND W Jun 20 $271 −$172 -64%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $804 −$18 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $844 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $591 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND W SELL 9¢ $99 8h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND W BUY 24¢ $271 9h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $761 3d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $216 12d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $239 14d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $323 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 9¢ $25 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $24 20d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 28 history records