Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:18:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
66 0x6627…000c sports 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$564 (-5%) realized −$582 · open +$18
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate43%41W / 54L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$122per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$430now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$613
14 days+$613
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$1,030
sports 27% +$190
other 19% +$634
tech 8% −$233
politics 4% −$285
finance 3% +$105
crypto 2% −$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-21.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 +6.8% -3.4% 47% 47% +10.6%
≤30d 57 -2.7% -11.9% 46% 44% -8.5%
≤90d 57 -2.7% -11.9% 46% 44% -8.5%
all 95 -13.4% -21.7% 43% 34% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.7% 34% -15.5%
10% -29.2% 33% -23.6%
15% -36.0% 26% -31.0%
20% -42.3% 22% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -24% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$61 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$430
Realized−$582
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses41 / 54
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions3
Markets (closed)95 / 98
History coverage154d
Avg bet$122
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? No 81¢ 88¢ $264 $286 +$22 (+8%)
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? No 67¢ 66¢ $120 $118 −$2 (-2%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $28 $26 −$2 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? Jun 18 $260 +$62 +24%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $25 −$11 -44%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $66 +$32 +48%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $59 −$28 -48%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $61 +$30 +50%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $43 +$136 +316%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $39 +$31 +79%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $71 +$67 +95%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $57 −$56 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $26 −$19 -76%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $58 +$42 +73%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $67 −$66 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 −$49 -50%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $50 +$68 +134%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $57 −$56 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 3 Winner Jun 14 $50 +$57 +114%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $97 +$83 +85%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. KT Wiz Jun 14 $100 −$3 -3%
Will Jalen Brunson win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 14 $51 +$49 +98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $47 +$52 +109%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $138 −$25 -18%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $203 −$167 -82%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $579 −$57 -10%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $91 −$89 -97%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $81 +$16 +20%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $397 +$657 +165%
Will Lee Won-taek win the 2026 Jeonbuk Province Gubernatorial Election Jun 04 $139 +$98 +71%
Will Kim Boo-kyum win the 2026 Daegu mayoral election? Jun 04 $195 −$193 -99%
Will Kim Kyung-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial E Jun 04 $822 −$641 -78%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $20 −$1 -5%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by between 3% an Jun 03 $59 +$59 +99%
Will Oh Se-hoon win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $229 −$151 -66%
Will Park Wan-soo win the 2026 Gyeongsangnam Province Gubernatorial El May 31 $735 −$54 -7%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs HANJIN BRION (+1.5) May 31 $106 +$53 +50%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. NC Dinos May 31 $53 −$52 -99%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) May 31 $39 −$12 -30%
Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Philadelphia Phillies May 31 $38 +$32 +84%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $349 +$288 +83%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $229 −$191 -83%
Will 60 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by May 31? May 30 $378 +$31 +8%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) May 30 $26 −$25 -98%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-2.5) May 30 $10 −$10 -97%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in May? May 30 $90 +$41 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET May 28 $26 −$25 -95%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in May? May 28 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET May 28 $11 −$6 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY No 67¢ $81 1h
Will Messi and Ronaldo Shake Hands During World Cup? BUY No 66¢ $40 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 87¢ $121 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 89¢ $322 1h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? SELL No 100¢ $322 2h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 66¢ $36 26h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 51¢ $51 26h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $14 28h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 29h
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. NC Dinos BUY Hanwha Eagles 51¢ $30 45h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? SELL No 62¢ $31 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 47h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 24¢ $1 47h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 17? BUY No 80¢ $260 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 28¢ $31 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $61 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $59 2d
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY No 40¢ $41 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $66 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 27¢ $20 3d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 55¢ $39 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $61 3d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 56¢ $57 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main SELL Aiemann Zahabi 14¢ $6 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main BUY Aiemann Zahabi 23¢ $26 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $23 3d
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car SELL Diego Lopes 100¢ $100 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 46¢ $67 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 47¢ $46 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $430.14 · official $430.14 (match) · 328 history records