Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:48:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6625…4fed crypto 392 markets active 2h ago coverage 742d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$75 (-1%) realized −$75 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate51%196W / 192L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day1.0pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$5
7 days−$9
14 days−$10
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 89% −$61
other 6% $0
tech 3% −$17
finance 2% $0
world 0% $0
politics 0% −$2
economics 0% $0
culture 0% $0
sports 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +1.8% -7.9% 14% 7% -11.1%
≤30d 44 -0.1% -9.6% 20% 2% -11.4%
≤90d 130 -1.8% -11.2% 36% 5% -10.6%
all 388 -3.5% -12.7% 51% 15% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.7% 15% -10.2%
10% -21.0% 8% -18.8%
15% -28.6% 5% -26.7%
20% -35.6% 3% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
70% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.34 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

742d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$75
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses196 / 192
Open positions4
Markets (closed)388 / 392
History coverage742d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day1.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 388 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 16 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? Jun 18 $128 $0 -0%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 $0 +40%
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 16? Jun 17 $2 $0 +0%
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $1 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $90 −$6 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? Jun 13 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? Jun 13 $180 $0 -0%
Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Diana Shnaider be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond? Jun 12 $1 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $3 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $92 −$3 -4%
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 $0 -1%
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? Jun 11 $97 −$1 -1%
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027? Jun 10 $2 $0 -1%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $10 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $150 in June? Jun 06 $60 $0 -0%
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? Jun 05 $2 $0 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in June? Jun 05 $100 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 04 $100 $0 -0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1 $0 -2%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 01 $60 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in May? Jun 01 $50 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 3 May 31 $79 −$17 -21%
Will Francisco Cerundolo win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Alex De Minaur win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 30 $1 $0 +1%
Will Sweden win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 29 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? May 29 $30 $0 -0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in May? May 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $1 $0 +1%
Will Qatar win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 27 $1 $0 -1%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,200 in May? May 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,400 in May? May 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 in May? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 21? May 22 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump be impeached by June 30? May 21 $1 $0 -1%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 21 $2 $0 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.80 in May? May 21 $10 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in May? May 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 19? May 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? May 19 $1 $0 +34%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in May? May 19 $2 $0 -0%
Will GTA 6 cost $100+? May 19 $3 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on May 15? May 15 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on May 15? May 15 $57 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down on May 15? May 15 $1 $0 +26%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $88 1h
Will Saudi Aramco be the second-largest company in the world by market BUY No 100¢ $1 30h
Will Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market ca BUY No 100¢ $1 30h
Will Amazon be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $2 30h
Will Ethereum reach $1,900 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $2 30h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $1 30h
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $88 30h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $1 30h
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 78¢ $84 30h
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $34 5d
Will Solana reach $160 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 82¢ $56 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? SELL No 100¢ $20 5d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? SELL No 100¢ $80 5d
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in June? BUY No 100¢ $20 6d
Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $80 6d
Will Jessica Pegula be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 98¢ $1 6d
Will Diana Shnaider be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 99¢ $1 6d
Will Madison Keys be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? SELL No 98¢ $1 6d
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? SELL No 100¢ $1 6d
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond? SELL No 100¢ $1 6d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 6d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $88 6d
Will Ethereum reach $4,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $92 7d
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $1 7d
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $96 7d
Pierce Brosnan announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $1 8d
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond? BUY No 100¢ $1 8d
Will New Zealand win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $1 8d
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? BUY Yes 94¢ $1 8d
Will Diana Shnaider be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY No 99¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.92 · official $4.92 (match) · 950 history records