Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:45:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
66 0x6625…182f politics 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate45%5W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$487per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% −$4
other 47% −$3
culture 1% $0
tech 1% $0
sports 1% −$1
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 4 +0.0% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 11 -6.9% -15.8% 45% 9% -9.7%
all 11 -6.9% -15.8% 45% 9% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 9% -9.7%
10% -23.8% 9% -18.3%
15% -31.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -37.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses5 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)11 / 11
History coverage63d
Avg bet$487
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 11 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 04 $41 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 29 $41 $0 +0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 26 $38 $0 -0%
76ers vs. Celtics May 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $2,533 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 29 $2,536 −$4 -0%
Will East Bengal FC win on 2026-04-28? Apr 29 $1 $0 +24%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 28 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 23 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $41 1h
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $41 16d
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 17d
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $25 17d
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $5 17d
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $6 17d
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $26 18d
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $0 18d
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $0 18d
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 18d
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 18d
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 18d
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 18d
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 18d
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $0 18d
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $0 18d
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 18d
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $2 18d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 99¢ $32 23d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 99¢ $9 23d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $41 24d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $38 26d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $38 46d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $2,530 53d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $2,533 53d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $2,532 53d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $2,536 53d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY Celtics 83¢ $1 54d
Will East Bengal FC win on 2026-04-28? BUY Yes 80¢ $1 54d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? SELL No 100¢ $40 54d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records