Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T11:06:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6624…4cd1 other 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized +$69 · open −$70
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate72%51W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$2,341now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days+$290
14 days−$180
30 days−$180
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
tech 39% +$191
other 24% −$197
world 17% +$123
politics 12% +$161
sports 9% −$352
economics 1% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +18.1% +6.9% 71% 71% +2.5%
≤30d 20 +5.4% -4.6% 70% 45% -13.8%
≤90d 33 +7.9% -2.4% 79% 48% -10.0%
all 71 -0.1% -9.7% 72% 34% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 34% -9.5%
10% -18.3% 24% -18.2%
15% -26.2% 15% -26.1%
20% -33.4% 8% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
53% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$52 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.0 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$2,341
Realized+$69
Unrealized−$70
Win rate (resolved)72%
Wins / losses51 / 20
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions13
Markets (closed)71 / 84
History coverage162d
Avg bet$106
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 71 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $2,091 $2,072 −$19 (-1%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 92¢ 94¢ $70 $72 +$2 (+3%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 88¢ $50 $48 −$1 (-3%)
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? No 78¢ 84¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+7%)
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? No 96¢ 100¢ $29 $30 +$1 (+4%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 68¢ 84¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+23%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No 82¢ 72¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-13%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 58¢ 70¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+22%)
Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? No 81¢ 82¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+1%)
US x Denmark Military clash before 2027? No 95¢ 98¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+3%)
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027? No 95¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 79¢ 19¢ $35 $8 −$26 (-76%)
Will no next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom be appointed in 2026? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $33 $0 −$33 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 28 $31 −$2 -5%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $235 +$42 +18%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $41 +$32 +78%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $110 +$69 +63%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 26 $1,244 +$205 +16%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $225 −$225 -100%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $299 +$168 +56%
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) Jun 21 $137 +$84 +61%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $496 −$466 -94%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $201 −$161 -80%
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Jun 14 $24 +$1 +5%
Trump out as President by June 30? Jun 14 $31 +$1 +4%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? Jun 14 $137 +$2 +2%
Iran nuclear test before 2027? Jun 14 $139 −$1 -1%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $125 +$23 +19%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by December 31? Jun 14 $101 −$10 -10%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $60 +$4 +7%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $66 +$3 +4%
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? Jun 14 $29 +$8 +26%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 14 $107 +$41 +38%
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? May 24 $86 +$2 +3%
Will Trump and Putin not meet? May 24 $30 +$2 +7%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 24 $113 +$29 +26%
Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 04 $35 −$35 -100%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? May 04 $38 +$17 +45%
Will Viktor Orbán be the next leader out before 2027? May 04 $15 +$6 +38%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 04 $300 +$88 +29%
Will Progressive Bulgaria (PB) win the most seats in the 2026 Bulgaria May 04 $37 +$2 +6%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? May 04 $20 +$2 +11%
Will Hezbollah disarm by April 30? May 04 $37 +$1 +3%
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30? May 04 $50 +$3 +6%
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in t Apr 13 $86 +$30 +34%
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliament Apr 12 $15 +$6 +44%
Will OpenAI acquire Pinterest in 2026? Feb 09 $10 $0 +5%
Brian Armstrong out as Coinbase CEO before 2027? Feb 09 $10 $0 +2%
Tim Cook out as Apple CEO before 2027? Feb 09 $10 $0 +5%
Will António José Seguro win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 09 $13 +$5 +36%
Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 09 $38 $0 -1%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 09 $50 −$1 -2%
Nothing Ever Happens: Khamenei Feb 09 $45 +$9 +20%
US strike on Mexico by March 31? Feb 09 $46 +$2 +5%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Feb 09 $50 −$2 -5%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 09 $30 −$6 -21%
US strike on Mexico by December 31? Feb 09 $67 −$2 -3%
Will Sanae Takaichi be the Prime Minister of Japan as a result of the Feb 09 $94 +$1 +1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2026? Feb 09 $89 +$3 +3%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Feb 09 $110 −$3 -3%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Feb 09 $238 +$5 +2%
US strike on Mexico by January 31? Feb 05 $37 +$2 +4%
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31? Feb 05 $40 +$6 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? SELL Yes 57¢ $29 1h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $648 15h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? SELL Yes 100¢ $179 37h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $31 39h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $41 39h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 60¢ $110 46h
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 86¢ $1,465 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $1,450 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 84¢ $235 2d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 95¢ $27 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $225 7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $31 7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $40 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $40 7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $251 7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $137 7d
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 47¢ $68 7d
UFC Fight Night: Kyoji Horiguchi vs. Manel Kape (Flyweight, Main Card) BUY Manel Kape 61¢ $137 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $299 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $201 7d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $57 13d
Will Israel reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? SELL No 93¢ $25 13d
Trump out as President by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $32 13d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $139 13d
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? SELL No 87¢ $139 13d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $137 13d
Iran nuclear test before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $137 13d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $148 13d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $148 13d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $156 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,341.49 · official $2,341.49 (match) · 310 history records