Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:45:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
66 0x6621…22cc crypto 536 markets active 0h ago coverage 55d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$121 (-1%) realized −$59 · open −$62
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate57%296W / 227L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day21.5pace
Fees−$77est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$96now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$196
7 days+$313
14 days+$162
30 days+$229
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% +$2
other 19% +$216
crypto 13% −$133
weather 1% +$4
culture 0% −$11
politics 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 74 +4.7% -5.3% 62% 46% -5.7%
≤30d 94 +5.5% -4.6% 62% 49% -6.9%
≤90d 523 -1.9% -11.3% 57% 44% -8.3%
all 523 -1.9% -11.3% 57% 44% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.3% 44% -8.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.8% 24% -17.0%
15% -27.5% 8% -25.1%
20% -34.6% 5% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$6 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

55d coverage
Net worth$96
Realized−$59
Unrealized−$62
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses296 / 227
Est. fees paid−$77
Open positions7
Markets (closed)523 / 536
History coverage55d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day21.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 523 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 53¢ 52¢ $70 $69 −$1 (-1%)
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Yes 62¢ 55¢ $27 $24 −$3 (-12%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $2 $2 −$0 (-1%)
Will Chappell Roan perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes $2 $1 −$1 (-43%)
Will Panama concede the most goals in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-91%)
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 48¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? Yes 29¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $61 +$43 +71%
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 17 $25 +$6 +24%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $96 +$112 +117%
Norway to win the second half? Jun 17 $242 +$105 +43%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 +$29 +57%
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals Jun 16 $142 +$77 +54%
France vs. Senegal: France 2nd Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $18 +$5 +27%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $13 +$2 +17%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $62 +$58 +93%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $118 −$5 -4%
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $66 −$4 -7%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $32 +$10 +30%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $76 −$76 -100%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $71 −$71 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $152 +$2 +1%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $75 −$1 -1%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $86 +$28 +33%
Fight to Go the Distance? Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $110 −$67 -61%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 4.5 Jun 15 $15 +$12 +76%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
UFC Freedom 250: Aiemann Zahabi vs. Sean O'Malley (Bantamweight, Main Jun 15 $113 −$9 -8%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $244 −$1 -0%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $101 +$28 +28%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $221 +$36 +16%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $164 +$38 +23%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 15 $10 +$14 +134%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $40 +$20 +50%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $30 +$5 +17%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $33 +$7 +22%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $186 −$186 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $390 +$12 +3%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $223 +$2 +1%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $463 +$52 +11%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $397 +$34 +8%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 0.5 AND Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 AND Austra Jun 14 $25 +$26 +106%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $30 +$4 +13%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $40 −$2 -4%
Australia vs. Türkiye: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $555 −$84 -15%
Will Josué Casimir score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $8 −$2 -26%
Will Michael be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $24 −$11 -45%
Will Chris Wood score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -29%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $81 −$81 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $35 +$28 +79%
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $50 +$16 +32%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 $0 +1%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $104 19m
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals SELL Yes 99¢ $31 20m
Exact Score: Argentina 1 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 29¢ $5 25m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 53¢ $71 32m
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $207 33m
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 48¢ $51 1h
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 79¢ $25 1h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $30 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $61 2h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $20 2h
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $45 2h
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/ BUY 45¢ $102 2h
Norway to win the second half? SELL Yes 100¢ $347 2h
Norway to win the second half? BUY Yes 69¢ $242 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $79 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 63¢ $51 4h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals SELL Yes 100¢ $218 4h
Erling Haaland: 1+ goals BUY Yes 64¢ $142 5h
France vs. Senegal: France 2nd Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 78¢ $18 6h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Under 100¢ $15 6h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 21¢ $4 7h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 50¢ $7 7h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 58¢ $9 7h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 50¢ $10 7h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 54¢ $8 22h
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 11¢ $9 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $62 23h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 33¢ $62 23h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 34¢ $41 23h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $42 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $96.40 · official $241.40 · 1407 history records