Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:35:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

66 0x661f…0d26 sports 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 12d

TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real

Total PnL −$141 (-5%) realized −$141 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip

Net edge+4%after slip

Net WR50%break-even

Win rate71%20W / 8L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$92per market

Trades / day4.1pace

Fees−$15est.

Kalshi-fit86%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$270

7 days+$276

14 days+$22

30 days+$22

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +50%

net ROI/market (all)+8.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	23	+17.5%	+6.3%	74%	48%	+2.4%
≤30d	28	+20.2%	+8.8%	71%	50%	-8.8%
≤90d	28	+20.2%	+8.8%	71%	50%	-8.8%
all	28	+20.2%	+8.8%	71%	50%	-8.8%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover4.1 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+8.8%	50%	-8.8%
10%	-1.6%	46%	-17.5%
15%	-11.1%	43%	-25.5%
20%	-19.8%	36%	-32.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 19% · top 2 31% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

30% wins margin < slip solid win margins

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +20% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +30% → late +11% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$46 vs −$112 · ×0.41 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×1.02 profit barely above losses

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized−$141

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)71%

Wins / losses20 / 8

Est. fees paid−$15

Open positions0

Markets (closed)28 / 28

History coverage12d

Avg bet$92

Trades / day4.1

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 28 Trades

no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	Jun 19	$75	+$1	+1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	Jun 19	$50	+$1	+2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	Jun 19	$34	$0	+1%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia?	Jun 19	$61	+$177	+292%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	Jun 19	$243	+$111	+46%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5	Jun 19	$206	+$8	+4%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$178	+$106	+59%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5	Jun 18	$111	+$9	+8%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	Jun 18	$144	−$142	-99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	Jun 17	$128	+$110	+86%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$51	−$51	-99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	Jun 17	$130	−$129	-99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$66	−$65	-100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	Jun 15	$47	+$24	+50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Jun 15	$52	+$49	+95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Jun 15	$5	+$1	+13%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 15	$133	+$41	+30%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 1.5	Jun 15	$120	+$63	+52%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$73	+$47	+64%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5	Jun 14	$74	−$73	-99%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14?	Jun 14	$71	−$70	-99%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 14	$30	+$58	+197%
Spread: Scotland (-2.5)	Jun 14	$13	$0	+2%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 11	$268	−$268	-100%
Spurs vs. Knicks	Jun 09	$40	+$57	+144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET	Jun 07	$104	−$100	-97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET	Jun 07	$52	+$50	+97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET	Jun 07	$5	+$6	+124%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$50	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Down	99¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET	BUY Down	97¢	$25	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET	BUY Up	99¢	$34	1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia?	SELL Yes	99¢	$238	1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia?	BUY Yes	25¢	$42	2h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia?	BUY Yes	24¢	$18	2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5	BUY Under	68¢	$243	20h
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 8.5	BUY Under	96¢	$206	23h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	SELL Under	100¢	$284	28h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	62¢	$89	29h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	62¢	$89	29h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5	SELL Under	100¢	$120	42h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 4.5	BUY Under	92¢	$111	43h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	54¢	$72	43h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	54¢	$72	43h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	53¢	$64	2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5	BUY Under	53¢	$64	2d
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	52¢	$51	2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	54¢	$65	2d
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	54¢	$65	2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	SELL No	0¢	$0	3d
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY No	53¢	$66	3d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5	BUY Under	66¢	$47	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Down	49¢	$26	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Down	50¢	$26	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	SELL Up	19¢	$6	4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Up	15¢	$5	4d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14?	SELL Yes	100¢	$174	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 63 history records